Analytics, Latvia, Legislation

According to preliminary data, 259,923 voters cast their votes for Harmony Center, 190,817 voted for ZRP and 172,524 for Unity.

127,172 voters or 13.88% have voted for All for Latvia-For Fatherland and Freedom/LNNK (VL-TB/LNNK), 111,951 or 12.22% voted for the Union of Greens and Farmers, whereas the other parties have not cleared the 5% threshold to be elected to the 11th Saeima, informs LETA.

22,130 or 2.42% of voters voted for Slesers Reform Party LPP/LC, 7,109 voters (0.78%) voted for For Human Rights in United Latvia, 4,470 (0.49%) voted for Last Party, 2,881 (0.31%) supported For A Presidential Republic, 2,577 (0.28%) voted for People's Control, 2,531 (0.28%) for Latvian Social Democratic Workers' Party, 2,010 (0.22%) for Freedom Free of Fear, Hate and Anger, and 1,994 (0.22%) for the Christian Democratic Union.

Harmony Center has won 31 mandates in the 11th Saeima elections, as Central Election Commission's Chairman Arnis Cimdars announced during a press conference.

Zatlers' Reform Party (ZRP) will have 22 seats in the 11th Saeima, whereas Unity will have 20 mandates.

All For Latvia!-For Fatherland And Freedom/LNNK (TB/LNNK) will have 14 seats in parliament, and the Union of Greens and Farmers – 13.

The other parties have not cleared the 5% threshold to be elected to the 11th Saeima.

According to Cimdars, the official election results will be announced no sooner than in four days and no later than in three weeks.

One of these is Slesers' Reform Party LPP/LC, which was part of the For A Good Latvia alliance in the 10th Saeima that had eight seats in parliament altogether.

The number of Unity MPs will also decrease in the 11th Saeima as Unity had 33 mandates in the 10th Saeima. ZZS will also have far fewer MPs in the next Saeima as ZZS had 22 seats in the 10th.

In the 10th Saeima elections, Harmony Center won 29 mandates, whereas VL-TB/LNNK had seven MPs. The 10th Saeima also has one nonpartisan MP – Visvaldis Lacis, originally a member of the VL-TB/LNNK group in the 10th Saeima.

Various coalitions are possible in the new Saeima, which could be made up of two or three political parties, according to LETA estimates based on the Central Election Bureau's preliminary election results.

It appears at the moment that Harmony Center will have 31 mandates in the 11th Saeima, Zatlers' Reform Party (ZRP) will have 22 mandates, Unity – 20, All For Latvia!-For Fatherland And Freedom/LNNK (VL-TB/LNNK) – 14 and the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) – 13 mandates.

The parties had said before the election that Harmony Center would not work in one coalition together with VL-TB/LNNK, whereas ZRP said that it would not cooperate with ZZS.

Therefore, just one coalition can be formed without inviting Harmony Center – such a coalition would include ZRP, Unity and VL-TB/LNNK, and have 54 seats (out of 100 seats) in parliament altogether.

If Harmony Center is part of the coalition, various models are possible, where the coalition will be made up of two or three political parties. Harmony Center could form a coalition with ZRP – such a coalition would have 53 seats in the Saeima, or with Unity – this kind of coalition would only have 51 seats in the Saeima though, which would mean more instability. If a coalition of Harmony Center and Unity is also joined by ZZS, such a coalition would have 64 seats in parliament altogether.

Another option is a coalition made up of Harmony Center, ZRP and Unity, which would have 73 seats in the Saeima. Harmony Center representatives said previously that this is the kind of coalition they would prefer to have.

In experts' opinion, given the election results, ZRP will play a very important role as much will be decided by whether it prefers to cooperate with Harmony Center or with VL-TB/LNNK. Experts are rather skeptical about a coalition made up of just two parties, whereas ZZS is very unlikely to get an offer to join the coalition.