Analytics, GDP, Latvia, Statistics

Upward pressure on the GDP value was mainly exerted by the output increase in producing sectors (accordingly provisional estimates – of 3.0%) and drop in services sectors – of 2.6%. Also, the volume of taxes on products collected reduced.

Compared to the 4th quarter of 2019, GDP fell by 2.9% (according to seasonally and calendar adjusted data).

Calculation methods used in GDP flash estimate are equivalent to methods used in previous periods. In separate sectors data imputation of non-responding units were carried out using administrative data sources.

COVID-19 crisis in time-series analysis area at the moment are considered as occurrence that is not seasonal. Respectively,when carrying out seasonal adjustment, impact of crisis is not excluded from the data. During the crisis the CSB does not receive new information on seasonal and calendar effects, as crisis does not allow their observation. Therefore, seasonal and calendar effects are estimated using only those data that are not object to impact of the crisis, and are excluded from the time-series using seasonal adjustment also for the data of the period affected by the crisis.

It must be taken into account that during the crisis both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar adjusted data may be potentially exposed to greater data revisions than they were in a period before the crisis.