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Tuesday, 23.04.2024, 18:10
The economic impact of agricultural production from climate change (cocoa) in Côte d'Ivoire
According to the 2015 Climate Change Vulnerability Index,
seven of the ten countries most at risk from climate change are in Africa.
Africa has now been put on the "red list." However, we can already
feel the consequences of global warming in Africa, affecting health,
livelihoods, food production, water availability and supply, global security, agriculture,
and food and finally on ecosystems.
Introduction
The cocoa tree is nowadays cultivated on all continents at
intertropical latitudes. Even more than coffee, it requires a warm climate all
year round (from 23 to 28 ° C) and very humid most of the year, with annual
precipitation of at least 1,500 to 2,000 millimeters. Because of its great
sensitivity to water stress, its cultivation is often practiced under the shade
and the protection of higher trees of the tropical forest.
In Ivory Coast the climate is tropical, with a dry season
from December to February, and a rainy season from April to October, due to the
African monsoon. Along the coast, the rains are quite abundant also in March
and November, and even in December on the most western part (see San Pedro,
Tabou).
Precipitation is more abundant on the coast, where it ranges
from 1,500 to 2,500 millimeters per year, while in the interior areas it is
generally less intense, and ranges from 1,200 to 1,500 mm, even if it reaches 2
000 mm in the small western mountainous area.
During the winter, the weather is good and temperatures are
high throughout the country, even in December and January, when the highs
oscillate around 30 degrees on the coast and 32/34 ° C in the interior areas.
In the interior areas the humidity is low, since the prevailing wind, the “harmattan”,
blows from the desert, bringing the dust which can cloud the sky and create a
typical mist.
From February, the temperature begins to rise in the
interior areas, easily reaching 40 degrees. On the coast the temperature is
more stable, even if the increases and therefore also the sensation of
sweltering heat. In April, showers become more frequent along the coast, while
in the north the temperature can reach up to 45 degrees. Between April and May,
the rains reach the whole country, but they become monsoon only along the
coast, where in May and June exceed 200 mm, but often also 400 mm. Even cloud cover
is more frequent and compact in the south and along the coast, while in the
north the thunderstorms alternate with cloudbanks accompanied by showers.
If in the north the rains reaching the maximum between July
and September, in the center-south and along the coast there is a decrease in
observations, especially in August and in the central and eastern part of the
coast, then they called for new from September to November, but at lower levels
than the May and June photos. However, along the coast, the sky remains cloudy
even at this time of the year.
The period from June to September is also the one when the
daytime temperatures are lower, since they drop around 28/30 degrees in the
interior regions and 26/28 degrees on the coast; on the other hand, the
humidity is very high everywhere, even if on the coast on feeling the
beneficial breath of the breeze.
Between late October and November, with the end of the rainy
season, daytime temperatures rose again in the interior areas, while rains
persist on the coast.
African agriculture threatened
The continent's agriculture, which already suffers from its
dependence on rain-fed irrigation, poor soil quality and outdated techniques
and practices, risks being hit hard as drought and floods will expand, temperatures
and growing seasons will change, and herders and shepherds will be forced to
leave their land.
Rising temperatures are also likely to cause the polar ice
caps to melt, causing ocean levels to rise and threatening the coasts and
islands of the planet, particularly the low-lying islands and coastal areas of
Africa. the east, which are likely to be frequently flooded or permanently
submerged.
Warming waters could also affect hurricanes and other severe
ocean storms, increasing their strength and frequency. Fishing activities in
coastal areas and their fragile ecosystems could also suffer from a possible
rise in sea levels.
Such a scenario would constitute a humanitarian and economic
disaster on a continent where agricultural activities represent 70% of jobs and
are often the engine of national economies, sources of export earnings,
industrial raw materials and low-cost foodstuffs. Studies predict that by 2030,
farmers in some countries will only harvest 50% of their current production.
The fishing industry is also likely to suffer from the drying up of lakes and
rivers and the disappearance of commercial fish species.
Ivory Coast is by far the world's leading producer of cocoa.
Its rank has also strengthened over the past decade since in 2003/04, it
represented 38% of world production and 41.7% in 2004/05. At the end of the
decade of political crises and wars, the new regime in place wanted to reform
the sector, which was done in 2011/12. A mechanism for early average sales
started in January 2012 with two auctions per day by electronic mail, enabling
a return to a policy of minimum price guaranteed to the planter representing
60% of the CIF price. A research policy, particularly against diseases, has
been launched.
Table 1.
Ivorian cocoa production according to world production over the past 15
years
|
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
World
production |
3378 |
3808 |
3430 |
3737 |
3592 |
3634 |
4309 |
4095 |
3945 |
4359 |
4168 |
Ivory Coast |
1286 |
1408 |
1229 |
1382 |
1223 |
1242 |
1511 |
1486 |
1449 |
1746 |
1740 |
Overall, we have witnessed, over the past 10 years, a
strengthening of the geographic concentration of the production. Ivory Coast is
gaining momentum and should represent, according to ICCO forecasts, 41.7% of
world production in 2014 against 35% in 2010 and 38% in 2004.
Result
First of all, there
is no doubt that global warming is causing meteorological changes. Even
stronger heat waves are to be feared, with intense droughts what could be the
cause of the drop in cocoa production in Ivory Coast and in the next 10 years.
Global warming
brings changes in the distribution of precipitation, but also dries up the
rivers, melts the glaciers where the water masses recede. Floods and droughts
have doubled in the past 25 years.
In addition, food
yields and livestock productivity have decreased due to heat waves and floods.
We remember that if the Ivory Coast is in
decline in cocoa production, this will have an influence on the production of
chocolate worldwide,
Conclusions
The consequences of climate change are already being felt,
but they will worsen. Global warming has caused temperatures to rise about 1 °
C above pre-industrial levels. Every half degree (and even less) of global
warming counts. The countries of the tropical zone of Africa like ivory coast
will be the most affected.
It is important to remember that no list of consequences of
climate change can be exhaustive. It is highly likely that heat waves will
become more frequent and longer and that extreme precipitation events will
become more intense and frequent in many regions. The oceans will continue to
warm and acidify, and the global water level will continue to rise. All of
these will, and are already beginning to have, devastating consequences on
human lives.
References
- Financing Climate Change
Mitigation: Towards a Framework for Measurement,Reporting and Verification
(2009) , URL : https://www.mediaterre.org/actu,20190924194440,11.html
- Measuring and Monitoring
Terrestrial Carbon as Part of “REDD+” MRV Systems: The State of the
Science and Implications for Policy Makers (2009) , URL : https://www.amnesty.org/fr/what-we-do/climate
change/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=Cj0KCQjwudb3BRC9ARIsAEa-vUt4r3eUZ2OwBmk7-R3QiVwlcus30U6IRv6D_RWCQFgjE1GwN7PzKxsaAnzkEALw_wcB
- A sourcebook of methods
and procedures for monitoring measuring and reporting (2010) , URL :https://fr.statista.com/statistiques/565101/production-mondiale-feves-cacao-volume-par-pays/
- Case Studies on Measuring
and Assessing Forest Degradation (2009) , URL : https://www.un.org/africarenewal/fr/magazine/july-2007/l%E2%80%99afrique-face-aux-changements-climatiques
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