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Saturday, 20.04.2024, 13:17
In december 2018, consumer confidence indicator decreased by 1 percentage point in Lithuania
The decrease in the consumer confidence indicator in
December was determined by more pessimistic expectations for all its
components.
Changes in the consumer confidence indicator and its components
Balance
December 2018 | November 2018 | December 2017 | May 2001–December 2018 average | Largest since May 2001 | Smallest since May 2001 | |
Consumer confidence indicator | –6 | –5 | –8 | −14.3 | 9 (2007-03) | −56 (2009-01) |
Changes in the household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months | 1 | 4 | 2 | −3.7 | 13 (2007-03) | −38 (2009-01) |
Changes in the country’s economic situation in the coming 12 months | −2 | 0 | −3 | −5.2 | 19 (2007-06) | −57 (2008-12) |
Changes in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months | 8 | 6 | 4 | 11.0 | 82 (2009-02) | −33 (2007-06) |
Probability of making savings in the coming 12 months | −16 | −15 | –25 | −37.3 | −15 (2018-11) | −54 (2001-05) |
On December, against November, a decrease in the proportion
of persons having optimistic expectations for the changes in the country’s
economic situation and household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months
was observed: the proportion of those expecting improvement in the country’s
economic situation decreased from 27 to 24%, the proportion of those expecting
improvement in the household’s financial situation – from 22 to 19%.
Compared to the previous month, the expectations of the
population for the changes in unemployment figures in the coming 12 months were
also more pessimistic: the proportion of those expecting the number of the
unemployed to decrease in the coming 12 months decreased from 22 to 19%.
In December, 41% of population expected to make some savings
in the coming 12 months (in November – 42%), as in the previous month, every
fifth citizen (20%) did not expect to make any savings.
Consumer confidence indicator in urban and rural areas
In December, the consumer confidence indicators in urban and
rural areas differed by 3 percentage points: in urban areas, the consumer
confidence indicator stood at minus 5, in rural areas – at minus 8. Against the
previous month, the consumer confidence indicator in urban areas decreased by
1, in rural areas – by 2 percentage points.
In December, the decrease in consumer confidence indicator
in rural areas was determined by more pessimistic expectations for all its
components.
Expectations of urban population were more pessimistic in
the assessment of improvement in the household’s financial and the country’s
economic situation, as well as the number of the unemployed to change. The
number of population who expected to make some savings, against the previous
month, remained the same.
Consumer confidence indicator, against the same period of the previous year
Over the year (December 2018, against December 2017), the
consumer confidence indicator increased by 2 percentage points.
Against December 2017, the population’s assessment about the possibility to make savings in the coming 12 months and the country’s economic situation was more optimistic: the percentage of those who expected to make at least some savings increased from 34 to 41%, and the percentage of those who expected the deterioration of the country’s economic situation decreased from 29 to 25%.
Population opinion on changes in the number of unemployed and changes in household financial position over the future 12 months compared by the opinion expressed a year ago, decreased: the proportion of those expecting the number of the unemployed to grow increased from 31 to 33%, while the proportion of those who expected improvement in their household’s financial situation decreased from 24 to 19%.
Assessment of changes in the last 12 months and the current situation
Compared to November, the opinion of the population
regarding changes in the household’s financial situation in the last 12 months
almost did not change: every fifth (20%) citizen indicated improvement (in
November – 21%), as in the previous month, every fourth (25%) citizen stated
that the situation deteriorated.
Assessment of the changes in the country’s economic
situation in the last 12 months was also worse than in November: 24% of
population stated that the situation improved, 31% – that it deteriorated in
the last 12 months (in November, 27 and 32% respectively).
As regards current financial situation of the family, 45 %of
population stated that they made some savings, 8% of population indicated living
on savings or borrowings (in November, 43 and 8% respectively).
In December, 27% of population intended to increase
expenditure on such purchases as furniture or household appliances in the
coming 12 months, 17%– expected to spend less (in November, 30 and 14% respectively).
The annex to the news release contains information on
changes in the consumer confidence indicator and its components (answers to
questions used to compile the indicator). Respective information on other EU
countries is available on the European Commission’s website https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/indicators-statistics/economic-databases/business-and-consumer-surveys_en.
The consumeropinion survey is conducted on the 1st–15th days
of each month by interviewing 1 200 individuals randomly sampled from
the Population Register of the Republic of Lithuania. The consumer confidence
indicator refers to the simple arithmetic mean of the balances of positive and
negative answers to four questions (about changes in the financial situation of
the household, the economic situation in the country, the number of the
unemployed (with an opposite sign), and the probability of making savings in
the coming 12 months).
The survey is partially funded by the EU
The January consumer opinion survey results will be released
on 29 January 2019. From January 2019, the consumer confidence indicator will
be calculated according to a new formula. More information on the changes will
be available in the news release for January.
Consumer confidence indicator, 2010–2018
Balance
Table 1. Consumer confidence indicator
Balance
| 2017 | 2018 | |||||||||||
XII | I | II | III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | XII | |
Total population | –8 | –8 | –7 | –6 | –5 | –3 | –5 | –3 | –3 | –2 | –5 | –5 | –6 |
Female | –12 | –10 | –10 | –8 | –7 | –7 | –7 | –6 | –4 | –5 | –9 | –7 | –8 |
Male | –2 | –5 | –4 | –3 | –2 | 2 | –2 | 0 | –1 | 1 | –1 | –2 | –4 |
Urban population | –8 | –7 | –7 | –6 | –4 | –3 | –4 | –2 | –1 | –1 | –4 | –4 | –5 |
Rural population | –8 | –10 | –9 | –6 | –5 | –5 | –7 | –4 | –6 | –5 | –9 | –6 | –8 |
Table 2. Opinion of the population about changes in the household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months
Per cent
| 2017 | 2018 | |||||||||||
XII | I | II | III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | XII | |
Household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months will: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
significantly improve | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
slightly improve | 24 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 26 | 24 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 19 |
remain unchanged | 52 | 56 | 59 | 56 | 55 | 57 | 58 | 58 | 60 | 58 | 59 | 59 | 59 |
slightly deteriorate | 15 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
significantly deteriorate | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Balance | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Table 3. Opinion of the population about changes in the country’s economic situation in the coming 12 months
Per cent
| 2017 | 2018 | |||||||||||
XII | I | II | III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | XII | |
Country’s economic situation in the coming 12 months will: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
significantly improve | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
slightly improve | 25 | 27 | 26 | 28 | 32 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 26 | 27 | 24 |
remain unchanged | 42 | 46 | 45 | 44 | 43 | 45 | 47 | 46 | 46 | 45 | 47 | 44 | 46 |
slightly deteriorate | 25 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 22 |
significantly deteriorate | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Balance | –3 | 0 | –1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | –2 |
Table 4. Opinion of the population about changes in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months
Per cent
| 2017 | 2018 | |||||||||||
XII | I | II | III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | XII | |
Number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months will: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
significantly increase | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
slightly increase | 28 | 30 | 31 | 33 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 28 | 31 | 30 |
remain unchanged | 42 | 41 | 39 | 40 | 39 | 42 | 43 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 43 | 41 | 45 |
slightly decrease | 22 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 26 | 23 | 22 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 20 | 21 | 18 |
significantly decrease | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Balance | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
Table 5. Opinion of the population about the probability of making savings in the coming 12 months
Per cent
| 2017 | 2018 | |||||||||||
XII | I | II | III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | XII | |
Probability of making savings in the coming 12 months: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
very likely | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
quite likely | 32 | 28 | 32 | 35 | 32 | 35 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 36 | 39 | 38 |
rather unlikely | 38 | 38 | 38 | 37 | 37 | 38 | 37 | 35 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 36 | 36 |
absolutely unlikely | 25 | 27 | 24 | 22 | 26 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 19 | 19 | 23 | 20 | 20 |
Balance | –25 | –29 | –24 | –19 | –25 | –19 | –21 | –18 | –17 | –16 | –20 | -15 | –16 |