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In december 2018, consumer confidence indicator decreased by 1 percentage point in Lithuania

Vida Stoškutė Chief Specialist, Standard of Living and Employment Statistics Division, 28.12.2018.Print version
Statistics Lithuania informs that in December 2018, the consumer confidence indicator stood at minus 6 and, against November, decreased by 1 percentage point.

The decrease in the consumer confidence indicator in December was determined by more pessimistic expectations for all its components.


Changes in the consumer confidence indicator and its components
Balance


December
2018

November
2018

December 2017

May 2001–December 2018 average

Largest since May 2001 

Smallest since May 2001 

Consumer confidence indicator

–6

–5

–8

−14.3

9
(2007-03)

−56
(2009-01)

Changes in the household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months

1

4

2

−3.7

13
(2007-03)

−38
(2009-01)

Changes in the country’s economic situation in the coming 12 months

−2

0

−3

−5.2

19
(2007-06)

−57
(2008-12)

Changes in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months

8

6

4

11.0

82
(2009-02)

−33
(2007-06)

Probability of making savings in the coming 12 months

−16

−15

–25

−37.3

−15
(2018-11)

−54
(2001-05)


On December, against November, a decrease in the proportion of persons having optimistic expectations for the changes in the country’s economic situation and household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months was observed: the proportion of those expecting improvement in the country’s economic situation decreased from 27 to 24%, the proportion of those expecting improvement in the household’s financial situation – from 22 to 19%.


Compared to the previous month, the expectations of the population for the changes in unemployment figures in the coming 12 months were also more pessimistic: the proportion of those expecting the number of the unemployed to decrease in the coming 12 months decreased from 22 to 19%.


In December, 41% of population expected to make some savings in the coming 12 months (in November – 42%), as in the previous month, every fifth citizen (20%) did not expect to make any savings.


Consumer confidence indicator in urban and rural areas

In December, the consumer confidence indicators in urban and rural areas differed by 3 percentage points: in urban areas, the consumer confidence indicator stood at minus 5, in rural areas – at minus 8. Against the previous month, the consumer confidence indicator in urban areas decreased by 1, in rural areas – by 2 percentage points.


In December, the decrease in consumer confidence indicator in rural areas was determined by more pessimistic expectations for all its components.


Expectations of urban population were more pessimistic in the assessment of improvement in the household’s financial and the country’s economic situation, as well as the number of the unemployed to change. The number of population who expected to make some savings, against the previous month, remained the same.


Consumer confidence indicator, against the same period of the previous year

Over the year (December 2018, against December 2017), the consumer confidence indicator increased by 2 percentage points.


Against December 2017, the population’s assessment about the possibility to make savings in the coming 12 months and the country’s economic situation was more optimistic: the percentage of those who expected to make at least some savings increased from 34 to 41%, and the percentage of those who expected the deterioration of the country’s economic situation decreased from 29 to 25%. 


Population opinion on changes in the number of unemployed and changes in household financial position over the future 12 months compared by the opinion expressed a year ago, decreased: the proportion of those expecting the number of the unemployed to grow increased from 31 to 33%, while the proportion of those who expected improvement in their household’s financial situation decreased from 24 to 19%.


Assessment of changes in the last 12 months and the current situation

Compared to November, the opinion of the population regarding changes in the household’s financial situation in the last 12 months almost did not change: every fifth (20%) citizen indicated improvement (in November – 21%), as in the previous month, every fourth (25%) citizen stated that the situation deteriorated.


Assessment of the changes in the country’s economic situation in the last 12 months was also worse than in November: 24% of population stated that the situation improved, 31% – that it deteriorated in the last 12 months (in November, 27 and 32% respectively).


As regards current financial situation of the family, 45 %of population stated that they made some savings, 8% of population indicated living on savings or borrowings (in November, 43 and 8% respectively).


In December, 27% of population intended to increase expenditure on such purchases as furniture or household appliances in the coming 12 months, 17%– expected to spend less (in November, 30 and 14% respectively).


The annex to the news release contains information on changes in the consumer confidence indicator and its components (answers to questions used to compile the indicator). Respective information on other EU countries is available on the European Commission’s website https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/indicators-statistics/economic-databases/business-and-consumer-surveys_en.


The consumeropinion survey is conducted on the 1st–15th days of each month by interviewing 1 200 individuals randomly sampled from the Population Register of the Republic of Lithuania. The consumer confidence indicator refers to the simple arithmetic mean of the balances of positive and negative answers to four questions (about changes in the financial situation of the household, the economic situation in the country, the number of the unemployed (with an opposite sign), and the probability of making savings in the coming 12 months).


The survey is partially funded by the EU

The January consumer opinion survey results will be released on 29 January 2019. From January 2019, the consumer confidence indicator will be calculated according to a new formula. More information on the changes will be available in the news release for January.


Consumer confidence indicator, 2010–2018
Balance



Table 1. Consumer confidence indicator
Balance

 

2017

2018

XII

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

Total population

–8

–8

–7

–6

–5

–3

–5

–3

–3

–2

–5

–5

–6

Female

–12

–10

–10

–8

–7

–7

–7

–6

–4

–5

–9

–7

–8

Male

–2

–5

–4

–3

–2

2

–2

0

–1

1

–1

–2

–4

Urban population

–8

–7

–7

–6

–4

–3

–4

–2

–1

–1

–4

–4

–5

Rural population

–8

–10

–9

–6

–5

–5

–7

–4

–6

–5

–9

–6

–8


Table 2. Opinion of the population about changes in the household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months
Per cent

 

2017

2018

XII

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

Household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months will:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

significantly improve

0

0

0

1

0

1

1

1

1

0

0

1

0

slightly improve

24

23

21

22

26

24

22

20

21

24

21

21

19

remain unchanged

52

56

59

56

55

57

58

58

60

58

59

59

59

slightly deteriorate

15

12

12

13

13

12

13

13

10

11

12

12

13

significantly deteriorate

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

2

1

2

1

2

Balance

2

4

3

3

5

5

3

3

4

5

3

4

1


Table 3. Opinion of the population about changes in the country’s economic situation in the coming 12 months

Per cent

 

2017

2018

XII

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

Country’s economic situation in the coming 12 months will:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

significantly improve

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

0

0

slightly improve

25

27

26

28

32

30

28

30

30

31

26

27

24

remain unchanged

42

46

45

44

43

45

47

46

46

45

47

44

46

slightly deteriorate

25

20

20

20

17

17

17

17

17

16

19

21

22

significantly deteriorate

4

3

4

4

3

4

3

2

2

4

4

4

3

Balance

–3

0

–1

1

5

3

2

5

5

4

0

0

–2


Table 4. Opinion of the population about changes in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months
Per cent

 

2017

2018

XII

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

Number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months will:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

significantly increase

3

4

3

3

3

2

2

3

3

2

3

3

3

slightly increase

28

30

31

33

27

28

27

26

26

26

28

31

30

remain unchanged

42

41

39

40

39

42

43

40

41

41

43

41

45

slightly decrease

22

21

22

20

26

23

22

25

24

25

20

21

18

significantly decrease

1

2

1

1

0

2

2

2

1

2

2

1

1

Balance

4

6

7

9

3

3

4

1

3

1

5

6

8


Table 5. Opinion of the population about the probability of making savings in the coming 12 months
Per cent

 

2017

2018

XII

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

Probability of making savings in the coming 12 months:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

very likely

2

2

3

4

3

3

2

4

3

3

3

3

3

quite likely

32

28

32

35

32

35

35

36

37

37

36

39

38

rather unlikely

38

38

38

37

37

38

37

35

38

36

35

36

36

absolutely unlikely

25

27

24

22

26

21

22

22

19

19

23

20

20

Balance

–25

–29

–24

–19

–25

–19

–21

–18

–17

–16

–20

-15

–16







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