Analytics, Baltic, Economics, GDP, Latvia, Statistics

In the 3rd quarter of the present year, as compared to the corresponding period of 2015, GDP grew by 0.3% according to both – seasonally and calendar adjusted data, as well as non-adjusted data. After receiving and analysing the detailed data of all sectors regarding the 3rd quarter, it has been established that the volume of GDP growth has been lower than estimated a month before.

In the 3rd quarter, GDP at current prices amounted to EUR 6.4 bln, whereas at constant prices of 2010 – to EUR 5.6 bln.

Changes of GDP volume (at constant prices, as %)

Production approach (at constant prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data)

In the 3rd quarter of 2016, as compared to the 3rd quarter of 2015, the manufacturing sector grew by 4%. Growth was recorded in all of the largest manufacturing sub-sectors: in manufacture of wood and of products of wood – of 4%, in manufacture of food products – of 1%, as well as in manufacture of fabricated metal products – of 6%.  Significant growth was also observed in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products – of 22%, in manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. – of 13%, and in manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products – of 10%. However, there was also a drop recorded in the industrial production of certain sub-sectors: in manufacture of wearing apparel – of 5%, in manufacture of chemicals and chemical products – of 8%, as well as in repair and installation of machinery and equipment – of 11%.

Out of the other industry sectors, minimum growth (of 0.3%) was recorded only in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation, while the other sectors witnessed a drop in growth: of 5% in mining and quarrying and of 8% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply.

In the 3rd quarter of 2016, as compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year, the construction production volume decreased by 22%. Construction volume dropped by 3% in the segment of non-residential buildings (a share of 39% of the total construction production volume) and by 9 % in the construction of residential buildings (a share of 16%). The largest drop (of 36%) was recorded in the construction of civil engineering structures (a share of 45% of the total construction production volume), including the construction of harbours, waterways, dams and other water works – of 39%, and the construction of highways, streets and roads, airfield runways, and railways – of 31%. In turn, growth was recorded in the construction of bridges and tunnels – of 50%.

Retail trade witnessed overall growth of 1% in the 3rd quarter of 2016, of which retail trade in food products decreased by 2%, whereas retail trade in non-food products increased by 3%. Wholesale increased by 6% during the respective period, while wholesale, retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles indicated a drop of 3%.

In the 3rd quarter of 2016, as compared to the 3rd quarter of 2015, the transportation and storage sector witnessed a drop of 2%. Passenger traffic increased by 5%, freight traffic dropped by 7%, warehousing and support activities for transportation witnessed a drop of 3%, while growth of 13% was recorded in postal and courier activities.

Significant growth (of 11%) was recorded in accommodation and food service activities, of which 14% in accommodation services and 9% in food services.

GDP growth was facilitated by taxes on products, which grew by 4% in the 3rd quarter of 2016 in comparison to the corresponding period of the previous year.

Expenditure approach (at constant prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data)

In the 3rd quarter of 2016, final consumption expenditure rose by 3%. That was influenced by a 3.2% increase in private final consumption, where household expenditure on transport (expenditure on public transport, purchase and exploitation of transport vehicles) grew by 2%, on recreation and culture – by 5%, while expenditures on restaurants and hotels grew by 9%. Expenditure on food has remained at the level of the previous year, while expenditure on housing decreased by 3%. Final consumption of households was affected by the drop in consumer prices on transport and housing, household equipment and routine household maintenance, as well as the increase in the income of households. Government final consumption grew by 2%.

Gross fixed capital formation witnessed a rapid decrease for the third quarter in a row, dropping by 26% in the 3rd quarter of 2016, as compared to the corresponding period of 2015. A drop was recorded in all of the fixed capital groups: investment in equipment and machinery decreased by 12%, in intellectual property – by 30%, whereas in dwellings and other buildings and structures – by 39%. The largest investments made in the 3rd quarter where recorded in the sector of public administration and defence, compulsory social security (22% of the total investments), retaining the level of investments of the previous year within the sector. 13% of the total investments were made in the transportation and storage sector, which was still 59% less than the year before. Investments in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sector decreased by 4%. Growth in investments was recorded in the sectors of trade (5%) and health and social work (3%).

Exports of goods and services have grown by 2% in the 3rd quarter, whereas imports have increased by 1%. Although it has to be noted that the respective increase was witnessed due to a drop in prices. The growth in exports had a positive impact on the GDP in the amount of 1.4 percentage points, whereas imports decreased the total GDP by 0.4 percentage points.

According to the flash estimate data of Estonia and Lithuania for the 3rd quarter, the GDP of Lithuania has grown by 1.7%, while the GDP of Estonia has increased by 1.1%

.Changes of Gross Domestic Product in the Baltic Countries
(at constant prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted, % of the corresponding period of the previous year)