Analytics, Economics, Estonia, Forum, Statistics

The ministry expects the Estonian economy to grow 2.5 % in 2017, 0.5 pp less than the estimate offered in spring. In 2018 GDP growth is seen to accelerate to 3%.

The ministry lowered the estimate compared with the spring forecast because the economic environment has not improved to the desired degree and also the outlooks of Estonia's trade partners have deteriorated.

Increase in private consumption, which has been the growth engine of the Estonian economy, is set to slow down this year and in 2017 as a result of accelerating inflation and smaller impact of one-offs.

The ministry expects CPI inflation to hit 0.2% this year and 2.7% in both 2017 and 2018.

Unemployment in Estonia is estimated to hit 6.2% this year, 7.2% in 2017 and 8.4% in 2018. Real wage growth is seen to hit 6.5% this year and then decline to 2.8% in both 2017 and 2018. Private consumption is estimated to grow 3.3% this year, 2.7% next year and 2.4% in 2018.

The export of goods and services will grow 2.7% this year, 3.5% in 2017 and 4% in 2018, according to the estimate.

The government sector's nominal surplus is estimated to equal 0.4% of GDP this year, 0.8% in 2017 and 0.3 % in 2018.

The government sector's structural position is forecast to be 0.4% of GDP this year and zero in both 2017 and in 2018.

The same estimate suggests Estonia's current account will run a surplus equaling 1.1% of GDP this year and a surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 2017.