Analytics, Economics, EU – Baltic States, Modern EU
International Internet Magazine. Baltic States news & analytics
Saturday, 27.04.2024, 05:00
Spring-2019: European economy’s account
The package includes, among other documents, some very
important for the member states socio-economy developments:
a) “Communication on
the 2019 European Semester: country-specific recommendations”; can be seen
at: https://ec.europa.eu/info/files/2019-european-semester-commission-communication-country-specific-recommendations_en;
and
b) “Country-specific
recommendations (CSRs) for 28 Member States”; at https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/2019-european-semester-country-specific-recommendations-council-recommendations_en.
For Latvian CSR see:
On the previous
winter assessment see: Eteris E. “Winter-2019 Semester: the Baltic
States’ position ranks positive” (4.03.2019)
in:
http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/modern_eu/?doc=147675&ins_print.
On country-specific recommendations, CSR
The CSR overall objective is to encourage the states to
increase their growth potential by modernising their economies and further
strengthening the resilience of their growth. As soon as the current economic
development is subject to slowdown, all states should prioritise reforms aiming
at sustainable and inclusive growth.
Moreover, increasingly digitalised and globalised member
states’ economies require “smarter investments” in infrastructure, innovation,
education and skills. Besides, the changing labour market and ageing population
require additional measures to ensuring sustainable and inclusive social
welfare systems.
Country-specific recommendations provide tailored advice to individual Member States on how to boost jobs, growth and investment, while maintaining sound public finances.
The Commission publishes them every spring,
as part of the European Semester, which is the EU's annual cycle for
economic policy coordination. The recommendations adapt priorities identified
at EU level in the Annual Growth Survey and at the euro area level in the
recommendation for the economic policy of the euro area. They give guidance on
what can realistically be achieved in the next 12-18 months to make growth
stronger, more sustainable and more inclusive.
On public finances
Public debt is declining, but progress is uneven among the
EU states: some having insufficient fiscal buffers while others have reached
sound budgetary positions. Besides, government debt remains high in several EU
states. The impact of an ageing population poses additional challenges for the
sustainability of public finances in the EU, and calls for reforms of the
pension, healthcare and long-term care systems.
The strengthening of fiscal sustainability in the euro area
states requires differentiated national fiscal policies. The country-specific
recommendations set a required fiscal adjustment effort consistent with the
Stability and Growth Pact for those states that have not yet reached their
medium-term budgetary objective. The states with adequate scope are also
recommended to use fiscal and structural policies within the rules of the
Stability and Growth Pact to increase public investment to support growth and
facilitate economic rebalancing.
Improving the quality of public spending could enhance the
ability of public finances to support growth. Fiscal policy that favors
investment in education and skills, quality infrastructure and innovation is a means
to increase growth potential.
On tax planning
This year, several country-specific recommendations directly
address the topic of “aggressive tax planning”, ATP: tax avoidance reduces
national revenues, disrupts fair competition and negatively impacts growth.
As soon as the European Semester is about coordinating
national policies to ensure convergence and strong national economies, combating
ATP and further tax coordination is an essential step to protect welfare and
competitiveness; these moves are also reflected in recommendations for the euro
area states by the Council in January 2019.
Besides, international efforts to improve transparency via
automatic exchange of information on financial accounts (generally coordinated
by the OECD) are aimed at improving tax compliance and delivering concrete
results for governments worldwide.
More than 90 jurisdictions participating in a global
transparency initiative under the OECD’s Common Reporting Standard (CRS) since
2018 have now exchanged information on 47 million offshore accounts, with
a total value of around € 4.9 trillion. The Automatic Exchange of Information (AEOI) initiative - activated
through 4,500 bilateral relationships - marks the largest exchange of tax
information in history, as well as the culmination of more than two decades of
international efforts to counter tax evasion.
More on AEOI in: https://www.oecd.org/tax/automatic-exchange/
Presently the international community has reached an
unprecedented level of transparency in tax matters, which will bring concrete
results for government revenues and services in the years to come, commented
the OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria.
AEOI has uncovered a deep pool of offshore funds that can
now be effectively taxed by authorities in the EU states and worldwide. Thus, cross-border
financial activity is already demonstrating the extent that international
standards on automatic exchange of information have strengthened tax compliance
with stronger results in future.
Voluntary disclosure of offshore accounts, financial assets
and income during the AEOI’s implementation resulted in more than € 95
bn in additional revenue (tax, interest and penalties) for OECD and G-20
countries during 2009-2019; only since November 2018, about € 2 bn was
added to this sum.
Preliminary OECD analysis of the AEOI’s impact has shown
that bank deposits held by companies or individuals in more than 40 key international
finance centers, IFCs increased substantially during last decade, reaching a
peak of $1.6 trillion by mid-2008.
More in” “Using bank deposit data to assess the impact of
exchange of information”, OECD Paper, 2019.
These deposits have fallen by 34% over the past ten
years, representing a decline of $ 551 bn, as countries adhered to
tighter transparency standards; a large part of that decline is due to the AEOI
initiative, which accounts for about two thirds of the decrease. Specifically,
AEOI has led to a decline of 20% to 25% in the bank deposits in IFCs; the complete
study OECD will publish at the end of 2019. Thus, global collective actions
make financial transactions and bank deposits more transparent while increasing
national tax revenues and reducing the off-shores’ negative effect.
Reference to: www.oecd.org/tax/exchange-of-tax-information/using-bank-deposit-data-to-assess-the-impact-of-exchange-of-information.pdf
Improving education system
Investing in education and skills is essential to sustain
innovation and productivity growth, especially in a rapidly changing world of
work with rising skills shortages.
Inequality in education among the EU states represents a
threat to social cohesion and the long-term prosperity of European countries.
Equal access to quality education is also essential for
disadvantaged groups; in some cases this may require to pay teachers more.
Since the world of work changes fast, stronger investments
in lifelong learning are needed – currently only 10% of the European population
participates in adult learning.
Boosting investment
Country-specific recommendations include a stronger focus on
investments: these recommendations refer to regional and territorial
disparities and aim to identify specific investment needs to ensure a more even
economic and social development. The EU guidance is set to inform the
programming of the EU Cohesion Policy Funds during 2021-27.
Developing a comprehensive EU investment policy agenda
remains crucial to address current and future growth.
Since the launch of the EU “Investment Plan for Europe”,
substantial private and public funds have been mobilised for investments across
strategic economic sectors, which gave a substantial boost to growth and job
creation. As of May 2019, this plan managed to mobilise almost €400 bn in
investments and to create around 750 000 jobs. In addition to unlocking
investments, the plan created numerous projects and measures to stimulate
investment in the SMEs business environment. The Commission will continue to address
regulatory and administrative barriers, at national and at EU level.
The EU states should also use EU Cohesion Policy Funds in an
optimal way to enhance investments in the relevant policy areas and this year's
European Semester cycle puts particular emphasis on this element, underlined
the spring Semester-2019.
The country-specific recommendations demonstrate an emphasis
given to investment needs in the country reports: first, the recommendations refer to the investment needs of the
whole economy, irrespective of how they will be addressed (private funding,
national public funding, or EU co-financed public funding). Second, they include non-financial
policies for improving the general business climate in their approach to
investment-related economic policy. This focus should help the discussion on
how the EU Cohesion Policy Funds under the next programming period 2021-27 can
address investment priorities in the EU states.
Country-specific recommendations and the EU funding
Country-specific recommendations provide guidance to the EU states
to pursue a policy mix of effective reforms, well-targeted investment
strategies and responsible fiscal policies.
While EU funds cannot address all investment needs, they
provide considerable opportunities to address the concrete investment gaps
identified in the country-specific recommendations. The Commission is making
strong efforts to better align EU funds with the European Semester
recommendations to improve results and strengthen the European added value of all
EU funds.
The Commission initiated a dialogue with national
authorities on how better to target Cohesion Policy Funds at national level for
the period 2021-27. The country reports and country-specific recommendations
provide the analytical and policy framework for successful programming.
General source: European Commission fact-sheets at: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-19-2815_en.htm?locale=en/5.06.2019