Analytics, Baltic, Energy, Energy Market, Estonia, EU – Baltic States

The price rose 13.5% to 52.63 euros per megawatt-hour in Estonia, 8% to 50.08 euros in Finland and 0.4% to  55.24 euros in Latvia. In Lithuania the price declined 0.5% to 55.42 euros per megawatt-hour.

As a result of colder weather, also the lowest hourly price for all the price areas was relatively high at 34.26 euros per megawatt-hour.

The price difference between Estonia and Finland was the result of a failure of the Estlink 1 cable, which put the undersea power link out of service from Nov. 4 to 26. Electricity continues to be more expensive in Latvia and Lithuania due to limitations affecting electricity trade with Kaliningrad and Belarus. The Nordic hydro stocks, too, were generally on a downward trend in November, being about five terawatt-hours below normal at the beginning of the month and some 13 terawatt-hours below normal at the end of the month.

A minor decline in the price of carbon dioxide emission credits helped to keep the overall price rise in check. The average price of the credits in November was 19.22 euros a ton, 1.8% lower than the average price for October. The latest closing price of carbon credits in November was 20.50 euros a ton.

Judging by futures, the expected December electricity price in Finland was 51.5 euros per megawatt-hour, which means that the price of electricity in Estonia should remain at November's level or move somewhat higher in December.

The oil market was on a continuous decline in November with 65.9 dollars a barrel as the average price for the month, which marks a drop of 18.2 percent from November. The main factors impacting global oil price in November were concerns related to oversupply, the sanctions on Iran, and a reduction in demand caused by the US-China trade war.

Together with oil prices, also gas prices moved lower as a result of lower-than-expected consumption and high supply. Month-ahead prices at GasPool dropped 5 percent to 24.98 euros per megawatt-hour and TTF prices were off 4.7%  at 24.87 euros per megawatt-hour.