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Friday, 29.03.2024, 13:00
Estonia's industrial growth slowing down – Luminor
"Industrial confidence in the euro area compared to a year ago
clearly indicates that growth is going to be more moderate in the second half
of this year; at the same time, deceleration is happening when the speed is
exceptionally fast. The growth in the volume of Estonian processing industry in
the last three months reaches 3.4%, compared to last year. With a growth rate
like this, we remain among the most successful ones in Europe. Also for the
coming year, we predict relatively good growth of external markets, including a
slightly lower than 2% development of the euro area economy. Rapid growth will
become more moderate. That leaves sufficient opportunities for the growth of
export dependent industry," Palm told.
In addition to external demand, the internal market has also been seeing
a swifter increase in orders already for some time, Palm said. "The
construction market's vigorous growth in volume has played a part, too, yet its
contribution is decreasing moderately. The U.S. industrial sector is doing even
better than the euro area, thus we are still in an environment of growth in the
developed countries, which is accompanied by a decrease in
underemployment," he added.
The chief economist of Luminor
said that it's still too early to conclude that deceleration in the growth of
international trade is having an impact on Estonian industry.
"The growth of the eurozone economy shows a continuous moderate
upward trend. The euro area and the Estonian economy are definitely supported
by private consumption. Raising exports at the previous rates will become a bit
more of a challenge as the growth rates of the economies slow down. Meanwhile,
global economy as a whole is growing at a continuously good rate in comparison
with the long-term average," Palm said.
In September 2018, the production of industrial enterprises increased by
2% compared to September 2017, production increased in manufacturing and
energy, but decreased in mining, Statistics Estonia said on Wednesday. The
total production in manufacturing was 2% higher compared to September 2017.
Over a half of the industry's branches exceeded the volume of the same month of
the previous year.
Compared to August 2018, the seasonally adjusted total industrial
production decreased in total by 1% in September. Production of manufacturing
also fell by 1% compared to the previous month.