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Tuesday, 10.12.2024, 09:00
Bank of Lithuania cuts 2016 GDP growth forecast to 2.6%
"Easing unemployment, rising incomes and increased corporate investments will provide a boost to economic growth," Raimondas Kuodis, deputy chairman of the central bank's board, said in a press release.
"However, optimism is dampened by foreign trade partners: Russia's economic outlook is grim, growth in the euro area is slower than expected, there is increased uncertainty about the US and emerging markets growth prospects. Therefore, the latest economic growth forecast is more modest than earlier projections," he said.
According to the central bank, the downward revision reflects a slowdown in global economic development. It is estimated that the global economy grew by around 3% in 2015, its lowest growth rate since 2010, when it began to recover from the global financial crisis.
The deceleration was particularly pronounced in emerging market and developing countries. Russia's economy is forecast to remain in recession this year. Therefore, exports' contribution to Lithuania's economic growth in 2016 will be lower than expected, it said.
The Bank of Lithuania forecasts that Lithuania's economic growth will accelerate to 3.4% in 2017.
The central bank's analysts expect that Lithuania's exports will grow by 2.9% this year, up from an estimated 1% last year, and that the pace of growth will quicken further to 4.8% next year. Imports should rise by 3.2% in 2016 and by 5.7% in 2017.
Gross fixed capital formation (investment) growth is projected at 2.4% this year and 7.4% in 2017.
The Bank of Lithuania on Thursday lowered its inflation forecast for this year to 0.5%, from 1.4% projected last December, due to energy prices falling at a faster-than-expected pace.
The central bank expects inflation to accelerate to 1.8% next year.
"Inflation in Lithuania returned to positive territory in January of this year, although it was low. On the other hand, the decline in energy commodities prices has been much sharper recently than we had thought and, therefore, we have significantly reduced this year's inflation forecast," Gediminas Simkus, director of the central bank's Economics and Financial Stability Service, said in a press release.
According to the Bank of Lithuania, given that the price of oil has been much lower than expected in recent months, energy prices to consumers are likely to fall more this year than previously thought. Projections for other prices remain basically unchanged: these prices will continue to rise, but the rate of rise will not be high.
Lithuania recorded a minus 0.7% annual inflation rate for 2015, the first year of negative inflation since 2003.