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In November 2018, consumer confidence indicator remained unchanged in Lithuania

Vida Stoškutė Chief Specialist, Standard of Living and Employment Statistics Division, 29.11.2018.Print version
Statistics Lithuania informs that in November 2018, the consumer confidence indicator stood at minus 5, and against October, remained unchanged.

Slightly more pessimistic expectations for the changes in the unemployment figures in the coming 12 months were counterbalanced by more optimistic expectations for the changes in the household’s financial situation and possibility to make some savings in the coming 12 months.


Changes in the consumer confidence indicator and its components 
Balance

 

November 2018

October 2018

November 2017

May 2001–November 2018 average

Largest since May 2001 

Smallest since May 2001 

Consumer confidence indicator

–5

–5

–10

−14.3

9
(2007-03)

−56
(2009-01)

Changes in the household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months

4

3

0

−3.7

13
(2007-03)

−38
(2009-01)

Changes in the country’s economic situation in the coming 12 months

0

0

−6

−5.2

19
(2007-06)

−57
(2008-12)

Changes in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months

6

5

3

11.0

82
(2009-02)

−33
(2007-06)

Probability of making savings in the coming 12 months

−15

−20

–33

−37.4

−15
(2018-11)

−54
(2001-05)



In November, against October, the proportion of population expecting to make at least some savings in the coming 12 months increased by 3 percentage points (from 39 to 42%), and this is the highest value of this indicator since the start of the consumer opinion survey (May 2001).


As regards expectations for the changes in the household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months, 22% of population expected the household’s financial situation to improve, 13% – to deteriorate, 59% – to remain unchanged (in October, 21, 14 and 59% respectively).


Compared to the previous month, the expectations of the population for the changes in the unemployment figures slightly deteriorated: the proportion of population expecting an increase in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months grew from 31 to 34%.


Consumer confidence indicator in urban rural areas

In November, the consumer confidence indicators in urban and rural areas differed by 2 percentage points: in urban areas, the consumer confidence indicator stood at minus 4, in rural areas – at minus 6. Against the previous month, the consumer confidence indicator in urban areas remained unchanged, in rural areas – increased by 3 percentage points.


Compared to October, the increase in consumer confidence indicator in rural areas was determined by more optimistic expectations of population for the possibility to make savings: the proportion of those expecting to make at least some savings in the coming 12 months grew from 32 to 39%.


Expectations of the urban population for the changes in the household’s financial situation and possibility to make at least some savings were slightly more optimistic, while those for the changes in the country’s economic situation and number of the unemployed were slightly more pessimistic.


Consumer confidence indicator, against the same period of the previous year

Over the year (November 2018, against November 2017), the consumer confidence indicator increased by 5 percentage points.


Considerable change was observed in the opinion of population regarding possibility to make at least some savings in the coming 12 months: over a year, the proportion of population expecting to make at least some savings grew from 29 to 42%.


Expectations of the population for the changes in the household’s financial situation and the country’s economic situation in the coming 12 months were also more optimistic: the proportion of population expecting deterioration in the country’s economic situation decreased from 31 to 25%, in the household’s financial situation – from 19 to 13%.


The opinion of the population regarding the changes in the unemployment figures in the coming 12 months was slightly worse than a year ago: the proportion of population expecting an increase in the number of the unemployed grew from 29 to 34%.


Assessment of changes in the last 12 months and the current situation

Compared to October, the opinion of the population regarding changes in the household’s financial situation in the last 12 months slightly improved: the proportion of those who indicated improvement increased by 2 percentage points (from 19 to 21%), while each forth (25%) stated that the situation deteriorated (in October, 28%).


Assessment of the changes in the country’s economic situation in the last 12 months was also better than in October: 27 % of population stated that the situation improved, 32% – that it deteriorated (in October, 26 and 33% respectively).


As regards current financial situation of the family, 43% of population stated that they made some savings, 8% of population indicated living on savings or borrowings (in October, 42 and 8% respectively).


In November, 30% of population intended to increase expenditure on such purchases as furniture or household appliances in the coming 12 months, 14% – expected to spend less (in October, 24 and 18% respectively).


The annex to the news release contains information on changes in the consumer confidence indicator and its components (answers to questions used to compile the indicator). Respective information on other EU countries is available on the European Commission’s website.


The consumer opinion survey is conducted on the 1st–15th days of each month by interviewing 1 200 individuals randomly sampled from the Population Register of the Republic of Lithuania. The consumer confidence indicator refers to the simple arithmetic mean of the balances of positive and negative answers to four questions (about changes in the financial situation of the household, the economic situation in the country, the number of the unemployed (with an opposite sign), and the probability of making savings in the coming 12 months).



Consumer confidence indicator, 2010–2018
Balance

 

Table 1. Consumer confidence indicator
Balance

 

2017

2018

XI

XII

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

Total population

–10

–8

–8

–7

–6

–5

–3

–5

–3

–3

–2

–5

–5

Female

–13

–12

–10

–10

–8

–7

–7

–7

–6

–4

–5

–9

–7

Male

–7

–2

–5

–4

–3

–2

2

–2

0

–1

1

–1

–2

Urban population

–9

–8

–7

–7

–6

–4

–3

–4

–2

–1

–1

–4

–4

Rural population

–13

–8

–10

–9

–6

–5

–5

–7

–4

–6

–5

–9

–6

 

Table 2. Opinion of the population about changes in the household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months 
Per cent

 

2017

2018

XI

XII

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

Household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months will:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

significantly improve

1

0

0

0

1

0

1

1

1

1

0

0

1

slightly improve

21

24

23

21

22

26

24

22

20

21

24

21

21

remain unchanged

51

52

56

59

56

55

57

58

58

60

58

59

59

slightly deteriorate

16

15

12

12

13

13

12

13

13

10

11

12

12

significantly deteriorate

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

2

1

2

1

Balance

0

2

4

3

3

5

5

3

3

4

5

3

4

 

Table 3. Opinion of the population about changes in the country’s economic situation in the coming 12 months 
Per cent

 

2017

2018

XI

XII

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

Country’s economic situation in the coming 12 months will:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

significantly improve

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

0

slightly improve

23

25

27

26

28

32

30

28

30

30

31

26

27

remain unchanged

42

42

46

45

44

43

45

47

46

46

45

47

44

slightly deteriorate

25

25

20

20

20

17

17

17

17

17

16

19

21

significantly deteriorate

6

4

3

4

4

3

4

3

2

2

4

4

4

Balance

–6

–3

0

–1

1

5

3

2

5

5

4

0

0

 

Table 4. Opinion of the population about changes in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months
Per cent

 

2017

2018

XI

XII

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

Number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months will:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

significantly increase

3

3

4

3

3

3

2

2

3

3

2

3

3

slightly increase

26

28

30

31

33

27

28

27

26

26

26

28

31

remain unchanged

40

42

41

39

40

39

42

43

40

41

41

43

41

slightly decrease

24

22

21

22

20

26

23

22

25

24

25

20

21

significantly decrease

1

1

2

1

1

0

2

2

2

1

2

2

1

Balance

3

4

6

7

9

3

3

4

1

3

1

5

6

 

Table 5. Opinion of the population about the probability of making savings in the coming 12 months
Per cent

 

2017

2018

XI

XII

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

Probability of making savings in the coming 12 months:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

very likely

2

2

2

3

4

3

3

2

4

3

3

3

3

quite likely

27

32

28

32

35

32

35

35

36

37

37

36

39

rather unlikely

36

38

38

38

37

37

38

37

35

38

36

35

36

absolutely unlikely

31

25

27

24

22

26

21

22

22

19

19

23

20

Balance

–33

–25

–29

–24

–19

–25

–19

–21

–18

–17

–16

–20

-15







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