Analytics, Lithuania, Markets and Companies, Statistics
International Internet Magazine. Baltic States news & analytics
Friday, 29.03.2024, 08:48
In November 2018, consumer confidence indicator remained unchanged in Lithuania
Slightly more pessimistic expectations for the changes in
the unemployment figures in the coming 12 months were counterbalanced by more
optimistic expectations for the changes in the household’s financial situation
and possibility to make some savings in the coming 12 months.
| November 2018 | October 2018 | November 2017 | May 2001–November 2018 average | Largest since May 2001 | Smallest since May 2001 |
Consumer confidence indicator | –5 | –5 | –10 | −14.3 | 9 (2007-03) | −56 (2009-01) |
Changes in the household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months | 4 | 3 | 0 | −3.7 | 13 (2007-03) | −38 (2009-01) |
Changes in the country’s economic situation in the coming 12 months | 0 | 0 | −6 | −5.2 | 19 (2007-06) | −57 (2008-12) |
Changes in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months | 6 | 5 | 3 | 11.0 | 82 (2009-02) | −33 (2007-06) |
Probability of making savings in the coming 12 months | −15 | −20 | –33 | −37.4 | −15 (2018-11) | −54 (2001-05) |
In November, against October, the proportion of population
expecting to make at least some savings in the coming 12 months increased by 3
percentage points (from 39 to 42%), and this is the highest value of this
indicator since the start of the consumer opinion survey (May 2001).
As regards expectations for the changes in the household’s
financial situation in the coming 12 months, 22% of population expected the
household’s financial situation to improve, 13% – to deteriorate, 59% – to
remain unchanged (in October, 21, 14 and 59% respectively).
Compared to the previous month, the expectations of the
population for the changes in the unemployment figures slightly deteriorated:
the proportion of population expecting an increase in the number of the
unemployed in the coming 12 months grew from 31 to 34%.
Consumer confidence indicator in urban rural areas
In November, the consumer confidence indicators in urban and
rural areas differed by 2 percentage points: in urban areas, the consumer
confidence indicator stood at minus 4, in rural areas – at minus 6. Against the
previous month, the consumer confidence indicator in urban areas remained
unchanged, in rural areas – increased by 3 percentage points.
Compared to October, the increase in consumer confidence
indicator in rural areas was determined by more optimistic expectations of
population for the possibility to make savings: the proportion of those
expecting to make at least some savings in the coming 12 months grew from 32 to
39%.
Expectations of the urban population for the changes in the
household’s financial situation and possibility to make at least some savings
were slightly more optimistic, while those for the changes in the country’s
economic situation and number of the unemployed were slightly more pessimistic.
Consumer confidence indicator, against the same period of the previous year
Over the year (November 2018, against November 2017), the
consumer confidence indicator increased by 5 percentage points.
Considerable change was observed in the opinion of
population regarding possibility to make at least some savings in the coming 12
months: over a year, the proportion of population expecting to make at least
some savings grew from 29 to 42%.
Expectations of the population for the changes in the
household’s financial situation and the country’s economic situation in the
coming 12 months were also more optimistic: the proportion of population
expecting deterioration in the country’s economic situation decreased from 31
to 25%, in the household’s financial situation – from 19 to 13%.
The opinion of the population regarding the changes in the
unemployment figures in the coming 12 months was slightly worse than a year
ago: the proportion of population expecting an increase in the number of the
unemployed grew from 29 to 34%.
Assessment of changes in the last 12 months and the current situation
Compared to October, the opinion of the population regarding
changes in the household’s financial situation in the last 12 months slightly
improved: the proportion of those who indicated improvement increased by 2
percentage points (from 19 to 21%), while each forth (25%) stated that the
situation deteriorated (in October, 28%).
Assessment of the changes in the country’s economic
situation in the last 12 months was also better than in October: 27 % of
population stated that the situation improved, 32% – that it deteriorated (in
October, 26 and 33% respectively).
As regards current financial situation of the family, 43% of
population stated that they made some savings, 8% of population indicated
living on savings or borrowings (in October, 42 and 8% respectively).
In November, 30% of population intended to increase
expenditure on such purchases as furniture or household appliances in the
coming 12 months, 14% – expected to spend less (in October, 24 and 18%
respectively).
The annex to the news release contains information on changes in the consumer
confidence indicator and its components (answers to questions used to compile
the indicator). Respective information on other EU countries is available on
the European Commission’s website.
The consumer opinion survey is conducted on the 1st–15th days
of each month by interviewing 1 200 individuals randomly sampled from
the Population Register of the Republic of Lithuania. The consumer confidence
indicator refers to the simple arithmetic mean of the balances of positive and
negative answers to four questions (about changes in the financial situation of
the household, the economic situation in the country, the number of the
unemployed (with an opposite sign), and the probability of making savings in
the coming 12 months).
Consumer confidence indicator, 2010–2018
Balance
Table 1. Consumer confidence indicator
Balance
| 2017 | 2018 | |||||||||||
XI | XII | I | II | III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | |
Total population | –10 | –8 | –8 | –7 | –6 | –5 | –3 | –5 | –3 | –3 | –2 | –5 | –5 |
Female | –13 | –12 | –10 | –10 | –8 | –7 | –7 | –7 | –6 | –4 | –5 | –9 | –7 |
Male | –7 | –2 | –5 | –4 | –3 | –2 | 2 | –2 | 0 | –1 | 1 | –1 | –2 |
Urban population | –9 | –8 | –7 | –7 | –6 | –4 | –3 | –4 | –2 | –1 | –1 | –4 | –4 |
Rural population | –13 | –8 | –10 | –9 | –6 | –5 | –5 | –7 | –4 | –6 | –5 | –9 | –6 |
Table 2. Opinion of the population about changes in the household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months
Per cent
| 2017 | 2018 | |||||||||||
XI | XII | I | II | III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | |
Household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months will: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
significantly improve | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
slightly improve | 21 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 26 | 24 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 24 | 21 | 21 |
remain unchanged | 51 | 52 | 56 | 59 | 56 | 55 | 57 | 58 | 58 | 60 | 58 | 59 | 59 |
slightly deteriorate | 16 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
significantly deteriorate | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Balance | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Table 3. Opinion of the population about changes in the country’s economic situation in the coming 12 months
Per cent
| 2017 | 2018 | |||||||||||
XI | XII | I | II | III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | |
Country’s economic situation in the coming 12 months will: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
significantly improve | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
slightly improve | 23 | 25 | 27 | 26 | 28 | 32 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 26 | 27 |
remain unchanged | 42 | 42 | 46 | 45 | 44 | 43 | 45 | 47 | 46 | 46 | 45 | 47 | 44 |
slightly deteriorate | 25 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 21 |
significantly deteriorate | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Balance | –6 | –3 | 0 | –1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Table 4. Opinion of the population about changes in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months
Per cent
| 2017 | 2018 | |||||||||||
XI | XII | I | II | III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | |
Number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months will: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
significantly increase | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
slightly increase | 26 | 28 | 30 | 31 | 33 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 28 | 31 |
remain unchanged | 40 | 42 | 41 | 39 | 40 | 39 | 42 | 43 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 43 | 41 |
slightly decrease | 24 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 26 | 23 | 22 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 20 | 21 |
significantly decrease | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Balance | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Table 5. Opinion of the population about the probability of making savings in the coming 12 months
Per cent
| 2017 | 2018 | |||||||||||
XI | XII | I | II | III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | |
Probability of making savings in the coming 12 months: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
very likely | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
quite likely | 27 | 32 | 28 | 32 | 35 | 32 | 35 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 36 | 39 |
rather unlikely | 36 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 37 | 37 | 38 | 37 | 35 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 36 |
absolutely unlikely | 31 | 25 | 27 | 24 | 22 | 26 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 19 | 19 | 23 | 20 |
Balance | –33 | –25 | –29 | –24 | –19 | –25 | –19 | –21 | –18 | –17 | –16 | –20 | -15 |