Analytics, Cargo, Estonia, EU – Baltic States, Railways, Transport

The analysis indicates Finnish goods to account for the majority of the freight volume, while the analysis also rated highly the potential of the terminal in Muuga as an international distribution center, which services the markets of Scandinavia and northwestern Russia, the companies said.

"If we compare data from the Ernst & Young analysis to the preliminary results of the Muuga cargo terminal analysis, then we can say that our view of the freight volumes of Rail Baltic is somewhat more optimistic. First and foremost with regard to the freight volumes coming from Finland and predominantly the goods which are directed to inland Europe, away from the larger ports along the Baltic Sea and North Sea. Competition in the vicinity of big ports is still tough and there the sea is and will remain a serious competition to Rail Baltic," Meelis Niinepuu, leading consultant at Civitta Eesti AS, said.

The analysis said that the freight volume in the first couple of years after the launch of Rail Baltic will be approximately 5 mln tons, of which nearly 2 mln tons will be the volume of goods from Finland. Peak freight volume is expected for 2045-2050, when the estimate for the railway is approximately 10 mln tons, while the Finnish freight volume will constitute up to half of the volume.

"Freight volume from East to West will be added to these freight volumes. Here, the Muuga goods terminal will have good potential both as the distribution center for China-Scandinavia and northwestern Russia. At present, two Scandinavian companies are already operating here who every week supply their Norwegian customers not from their Oslo depot but from Muuga. The arrival of Rail Baltic at Muuga will create new synergies and improve the competitive position of the Port of Tallinn in the logistics value chain," Niinepuu said.

"Interim results of the analysis confirm what we have heard at different meetings in Finland and what was also highlighted in the EY cost-benefit analysis: there is enough goods for Rail Baltic. Big potential was seen in the servicing of trade between central and southern Europe, in Poland, Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Italy. We need to act wisely to realize that potential," Vaiko Eggert, project manager at Rail Baltic Estonia OU, said.

The Rail Baltic goods terminal at Muuga, which is to be connected with the port, will be the northernmost goods station of Rail Baltic which will have to ensure the smooth cooperation between port infrastructure, existing road network and the 1,520 millimeter railway network and technologies relating to them as well as meet all needs of the users of Rail Baltic. The analysis of the multimodal goods terminal at Muuga will be finished and published in fall 2017.