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International Internet Magazine. Baltic States news & analytics Thursday, 25.04.2024, 10:47

Genyte-Pikciene: footprints of Russian bear more visible in economic expectations of Lithuania

BC, Vilnius, 30.09.2014.Print version
Recovery in domestic demand, observed last year and in the first half of 2014, was the result of better expectations of businesses and consumers. Unfortunately, geopolitical tension and uncertainty which growing due to external threats is pushing the expectation curves down, says Indre Genyte-Pikciene, chief analyst of DNB, cites LETA/ELTA.

According to the analyst, in assessing short or even medium-term outlook, the biggest concern comes from the development of Lithuania's exports and changes in the map of the key trading partners. Lithuania is a small, open economy, whose growth opportunities without external impetus are very limited. Domestic market is shallow because of demography and structural labour market issues: flow of emigration that is falling too slowly, shortage of skilled workers, which all result in one of the lowest income levels throughout the EU, a large share of non-working age population, etc.

 

"Therefore the competitiveness of our exports used to be the main pillar supporting the long-term sustainable development success of Lithuania. At the moment, the exports' engine of Lithuania is stalling because of EU markets, which can hardly escape stagnation, and because of Russia which is exuding geopolitical tension and threats," Genyte-Pikciene said.

 

The analyst stresses that the main and trivial task for Lithuanian business, as repeatedly mentioned by all experts and politicians, has to do with finding new growing markets. However, in order to complete this task, there must be diplomatic bridges built, while business representatives must change their own mind-sets. Such heavy dependence of foreign trade on Russia's market shows that Lithuania fails the fight against the established traditions and canons. While Russia's market was open such behaviour worked out but now the time has come for changes in our mind-set in order to become more open and diversify.

 






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