Analytics, Baltic Export, Direct Speech, Economics, Estonia, Foreign trade

"A stronger currency is theoretically disadvantageous for export and makes import cheaper, but most of the foreign trade transactions in Estonia take place in euros. Last year 11% of transactions in the export of goods took place in U.S. dollars and 13% in the import of goods," Mertsina said on Swedbank's blog.

"Although the euro has become stronger in relation to the U.S. dollar by around 12% and is already at 1.18 at present, the euro is still weaker than its long-term average. For instance, the euro's 10-year average exchange rate is around 1.30," Mertsina said.

According to Mertsina, the strengthening of the euro should only have a modest impact on Estonia's exports, and in imports the impact is also not very broad-based. "A stronger foreign demand has a bigger and more positive impact on exports," he added.

Besides the exchange rate, it is also important to observe the change in export and import prices, Mertsina said. "Both prices have been moving up as of last fall - in an accelerating speed last year, while this year the speed has slowed down mainly due to the decelerating growth of prices of shale oil products," he added.