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Demography to have most significant effect on Baltic real estate market in following years

BC, Riga, 20.10.2016.Print version
Demographic trends are going to have the most significant impact on the Baltic real estate market in following years, Morten Hansen, the head of the Economics Department at the Riga Faculty of the Stockholm School of Economics, said at the Baltic Real Estate Leaders Forum today.

If something happens in one of the Baltic states, in all likelihood, it will happen also in the two other Baltic states, because there is intercorrelation of economic processes and development.


The next coming years will be much more predictable as the economic growth dynamic has moved from the "roller-coaster phase" to the "turtle phase". There is no recession now and it is not expected in the near future, the economist said.


Hansen added that the jobless rate had stabilized, which means that employed people are now more confident about their jobs and income than in 2007 when there was no such confidence. With new economic disasters unlikely to strike anytime soon, people are going to be much more confident about their ability to buy real estate.


External factors' impact on the property market will be rather limited, Hansen predicted, adding that the European Central Bank will continue to print money, interest rates will remain low, just like inflation, while new banking crises are not in the forecast for Europe.


Brexit's impact on the Baltic states' economic growth will be negligible, almost nonexistent. The only effect might be on the mobility of workforce, as some of the guest workers currently residing in Britain will probably want to return, but these processes will be rather minimal and their effect on the property market will be insignificant, Hansen said.


The economist believes that demographic trends will have the most significant impact on the market in following years. At present, there are about 280,000 people in Latvia who might be able to buy real estate, but after 2020 their number will be down to 200,000, which is a substantial reduction, which will affect the market.


The Baltic Real Estate Leaders Forum, which brings together leading and active real estate leaders, investors and specialists from the Baltic states, is taking place in Riga today.






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