Analytics, Corruption, Direct Speech, Financial Services, Latvia, Legislation, Railways, Transport

To my mind, our economy suffered three heavy strikes recently. These are: Russian sanctions, attack over residence permits programs and “the bomb” under transit. Our government should think about how we are going to live in winter and what we are going to do in 2016. But instead of that they are telling our people that the economy, state income and are not the most important things, but fussy activities of intelligence services, geopolitical games (without resources and vision of strategy) and… cutting of the state budget are.

However, no one is asking himself: why we are speaking about reducing budget and tax boost? Where are statesmen, who were telling that real estate and construction markets are going to outlive the reduction of residence permit program easily? Even today we see that construction market is the record holder in falling of all the indexes comparing with other areas. Real estate market freeze. All this means seasoned decrease of jobs and new wave of emigration as a result.

Milk and fish-processing companies are hoping to get the state support. But the real situation is that they could only hope for finances to find new markets. But it is very hard to find replacement for Russia in three-four months! At best it will take a year or two. We have to expect a long time decrease or stagnation in reclamation industry.  

And now comes the story about Ugis Magonis and it is going to be the main strike for transit area. Head of LDz was the best state manager in our country. But it is most likely an exception to the rule. Despite of all political risks he managed to keep the goods traffic from Russia and to achieve sustainable development of LDz. Mainly because of his ability to make personal connections with consignors and administration of Russian railroads. Maybe our officials believe that businessman is a primitive creature doing only purchase-sale? I will disappoint them: businessman first of all is a person, who could create contacts with other person, control the financial condition of his company. The most successful companies and projects are built on the ground of personal relations.

What alerted me in so called Magonis’ case? The story is obviously false-bottomed and reminds the events around former head of Customs Criminal Board Vladimir Vashkevich. We could say that the scheme was worked off on Vashkevich, and now it struggled against Ugis Magonis. First coincidence. According to all the expressions of Prime minister and minister of foreign affairs all the trouble at LDz were stirred up by “Unity” party, which was troubled by inconvenient Vashkevich in due time, but now – by intractable Magonis. It is clear that people from “Unity” want to control transit traffic; they believe it is easy money. But the objective of Corruption combating bureau is not just to catch criminals and lie in wait. It is very primitive. And the objective is not to make PR-campaigns afterwards, like Juta Strike did in case of Magonis: look how we broke the law and we are not liable for it.  The objective is to prevent corruption; it is hard and intellectual work. Do they really want to make advertisement of themselves by any means to an end?

Very fishily, that all the events regarding Magonis’ case are connected with Estonia in one way or another; Estonia wants to get back Russian goods very much. If these suspicions are real it turns out that part of Latvian services is working on economic interests of other country? The wave of black PR with obviously one source is horrifying. They had just arrested Ugis Magonis and the wave of contradictory, strange and anonymous messages started; the main purpose thereof is to make a criminal out of Magonis without trial. The same dirt (and from the same people) was spilled over Vashkevich, who presumed to inform that main corruption combaters (KNAB) are stealing shamelessly. Openly, from safe.     

If in Magonis’ case everything is going to be done on well-established pattern (I would be happy to make a mistake), the name of former head of LDz will be covered with mud and the facts will be perverted. Some strange information about his private life will be published. Investigation will last many years and the case is going to brake at the court in the end. But there is a possibility that Ugis Magonis could be placed in prison because the rates are high. The political order is obvious, but everything happens as usual: incorrectly with violation of law and black PR campaign.

But something was left behind this “operation” – economy. Were the economy risks calculated? Who thought about how this fake scandal will result in transit flow, tax deductions and social guarantees for almost 15 thousand people? Why state first persons are trusting specific representatives of intelligent services, who had already failed in their own loud proceedings many times and were caught on put-up job and obvious swindle? Just one example. In so called Riga city Council case the court refused to make expert examination of some entry in datebook of a criminal, later – a witness of “giving the shoe box”. This entry is one the main evidences. I’m absolutely sure that this entry is faked and by refusing an expert examination the court and prosecutor’s office show that they most likely are sure in it too. So, the right to a fair trial according to Article 6 of European Convention of the Council of Europe is being violated. As the result of this fabricated procedure hundreds of investors not dared to invest in Latvia. It was the first loud “”bid” to brake the economy.

I think that main part of society forgot how to think rationally. Why we are not interested in raising our quality of life, but are interested in raising taxes? Why the society is made to believe that entrepreneurs think just how to rob the people? Why the society delegated court function to just one TV show so easily? 

I think businessmen, who didn’t want to have a heart-to-heart talk with youngsters and old people are also responsible for it. I believe that a conversation between real business and pensioner organizations and youth associations should be started quickly. We should describe how modern economy works. Describe how state income develops. We must prove that if Latvian business will be trusted, Latvia will forget about decreasing budget and raising taxes. We must try to change “sovok” mentality: if you are earning much money then you are a criminal...

I believe that our people are able not only to understand what is happening, but also to change their attitude to business, country development and it could become a start of real success story of Latvia...