Baltic States – CIS, Direct Speech, Latvia, Legislation, Russia

Kazocins points out that Russia can compared at the moment to the Soviet Union in the 1980s.

''Back then, everyone knew that change is coming, just nobody knew how and when. This could take place suddenly, or slowly. During his first two presidential periods Putin had an "agreement" with the Russian people – I will give you a higher standard of living, but for that you will have less democracy. Now this is moving in a different direction – more and more repression is taking place in the country, and democratic standards are falling to even lower lows,'' Kazocins points out.

Kazocins reminded that Putin recently disappeared for 11 days, and people began to ask if a coup had not taken place. If the people begin thinking and discussing about possible life without Putin, then psychologically this thought process is already going through their minds, he points out.

The current advisor to the Latvian defense minister also thinks that too many have brushed aside the influence Ramzan Kadyrov has in Russia. ''This can be seen by the internal struggle between the Russian Federal Security Service and Kadyrov’s interests. The Kremlin does not wish to side with any of these conflicting sides. Russia’s economic problems, in tandem with this situation, could lead to a certain level of instability.''

Kazocins also goes on to say that Putin’s main aim is to stay in power until he dies, as he does not wish to meet the same fate as the toppled Libyan dictator Gaddafi, and he will do everything he can to remain in power.

''I believe that Russia’s economic problems can make the country’s actions unpredictable, thus it is not in the West’s interests to vanquish Russia, but instead change its national position. The collapse of Russia is the last thing the West needs. Such instability, in the context of nuclear weapons, would be much, much more dangerous than the current situation. If somebody thinks that the situation will improve if Putin loses power, they are wrong, as something much worse could replace him. Putin is a rational thinking person, and he knows very well what the reaction will be if a NATO member is attacked or nuclear weapons are used. If someone, like, for example, Dmitry Rogozin were to replace Putin, he might not understand these consequences,'' the former head of the Constitutional Protection Bureau points out.