Analytics, EU – Baltic States, Security

Experts from the Washington-based think tank Atlantic Council warn in their latest study that alliance “trip-wire” forces in the Baltics and Poland could be overrun if attacked, according to the American military newspaper Stars and Stripes.

“A determined Russian conventional attack, especially if mounted with little warning, could defeat these forward-deployed NATO and U.S. forces in a relatively short period of time, before reinforcements could be brought to bear,” stated the Atlantic Council report.

The report, titled “Permanent Deterrence: Enhancements to the U.S. Military Presence in North Central Europe,” lays out a plan to counter such scenarios.

The experts recommend a beefed up American military force in Poland, “because its size and geographic location make it a key staging area for most NATO efforts to defend allied territory in the three Baltic states.”

The report’s authors are Gen. Philip Breedlove, who led U.S. European Command and served as NATO supreme allied commander until retiring in 2016, and NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow.

The report has been published at a time when the U.S. Congress is deciding whether the U.S. forces deployed in Europe are strong enough to deter Russia and the Pentagon is considering Warsaw’s proposal to allocate USD 2 billion for a permanent U.S. military base in Poland.