Analytics, Baltic, Demography, Society

Besides, Estonia has been experiencing this negative trend already for the third year in a row.

Number of live births in the Baltic States: 2010 – 2013

The highest birth rates in the Baltic States were registered in 1986 and 1987 when twice as many babies were born as today. The total fertility rate or the average number of children that would be born to a woman during her lifetime provided that the birth-rate of the given year remains at the previous level in Latvia was 2.2, in Lithuania – 2.1, and in Estonia – 2.3 (desired rate in order to allow normal generational replacement is 2.1 – 2.2 children).   

The current birth rate growth is related to the fact that women born in the late 1980s have reached the average age of mother at the first childbearing (in 2013 – 26.9 years); besides, the share of the women of this age is comparatively large (a similar situation in Estonia and Lithuania). However, the other Baltic States are not witnessing a birth rate increase.

In 2013 the total fertility rate in Latvia increased to 1.52, reaching the Estonian level, where in turn this indicator has been declining over the last few years. Like in Estonia, also in Lithuania the total fertility rate decreased in 2013. Yet it still is higher than in the other Baltic States – 1.59. This indicator is still too low for normal generational exchange in Latvia, as well as in other European countries, where the total fertility rate in 2012 was only 1.57 (the highest in Ireland – 2.05).

Total fertility rate in the Baltic States: 2005 – 2013

Data on the key fertility indicators in Latvia in 2013 are available in the CSB database.

Data on Estonia are available in the database of Statistics Estonia. Data on Lithuania are available in the database of Statistics Lithuania.