Analytics, Industry, Lithuania, Retail, Statistics

International Internet Magazine. Baltic States news & analytics Monday, 21.01.2019, 03:49

In December 2018, economic sentiment indicator decreased by 1 percentage point in Lithuania

Jurgita Lavrovienė Žinių ekonomikos ir specialiųjų tyrimų statistikos skyriaus specialistė, 10.01.2019.Print version
Statistics Lithuania informs that in December 2018, the economic sentiment indicator stood at 4 and, against November, decreased by 1 percentage point. The retail trade confidence indicator decreased by 4, construction – 2, consumer and services – 1 percentage point. The industrial confidence indicator remained unchanged.

Compared to December 2017, the economic sentiment indicator increased by 5 percentage points: the services confidence indicator increased by 11, industrial – 3, consumer and construction – 2, retail trade – 1 percentage point.


Economic sentiment indicator and its components

 

2017

2018

Largest since 2003

Smallest since 2003

XI

XII

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

Economic sentiment indicator

0

–1

0

4

6

10

9

10

10

9

8

7

5

4

18
(2007-04)

–44
(2009-01)

Industrial confidence indicator

–6

–9

–7

–6

1

3

0

3

2

1

–1

–2

–6

–6

14
(2007-04)

–38
(2008-12)

Construction confidence indicator

–23

–28

–24

–15

–3

–2

–4

–4

–2

–10

–13

–18

–24

–26

20
(2007-05)

–84
(2009-04)

Retail trade confidence indicator

5

5

4

7

6

9

11

11

11

11

11

10

10

6

42
(2007-04)

–58
(2009-02)

Services confidence indicator

18

18

17

28

22

31

30

32

31

32

31

29

30

29

33
(2006-07)

–46
(2009-03)

Consumer confidence indicator*

–10

–8

–8

–7

–6

–5

–3

–5

–3

–3

–2

–5

–5

–6

9
(2007-03)

–56
(2009-01)


* More information is available in the news release Consumer Opinion Survey Results.


The results of an opinion survey of industrial enterprise managers showed that in December, against November, the changes in business trends were moderate. The industrial confidence indicator stood at minus 6, i.e. compared to the previous month, it remained unchanged.


However, in December, against the same period of the previous year, the industrial confidence indicator increased by 3 percentage points. This was influenced by better assessment of the production demand: most (75%) of the interviewed stated that the demand was sufficient, 3% – that it was too high, 22% – that it was too low (a year ago, 70, 1 and 29% respectively).

Moreover, in December 2018, against the same period of the previous year, an increase in production was also observed: 31% of the respondents indicated an increase, 12% – a decrease in production (a year ago, 25 and 16% respectively).


The production expectations were slightly more pessimistic than a month ago: 19% of the interviewed planned on increasing the production in the coming 3 months, 19% – on decreasing it (a month ago, 21 and 18% respectively). Expectations for exports of goods were similar as a month ago: 18% of the respondents expected exports to increase, 13% – to decrease. An increase in the number of employees was expected by 10% of the interviewed, while most (84%) of the respondents did not plan on changing the number of employees.

An increase in prices was expected by 20, a decrease – 5% of the interviewed (a month ago, 12 and 4% respectively, a year ago – 18 and 9% respectively).  


The main factors that limited the production were insufficient demand (36%) and lack of employees (17%). 39% of respondents stated that the production was not limited by any factors.


Fig. 1. Industrial confidence indicator and its components



In December, against November, the construction confidence indicator decreased by 2 percentage points, yet compared to the same period of the previous year, increased by 2 percentage points.


In December, the assessment of the demand was slightly worse than in November but better than a year ago: 69% of the respondents stated that the demand was sufficient, 31% – that it was insufficient (a month ago, 71 and 29% respectively, a year ago – 64 and 36% respectively).


Compared to November and the same period of the previous year, as regards the volume of construction works, the trend deteriorated: 18% of the respondents indicated an increase, 14% – a decrease in construction works (a month ago, 24 and 7 % respectively, a year ago – 23 and 10% respectively).


Most (60 %) of the respondents did not intend to change the number of employees, 9% – planned on hiring new employees, while 31% expected the number of the employees to decrease. Expectations for the construction order books (demand) were more pessimistic than a month ago: an increase was expected by 10, a decrease – 32% of the respondents (a month ago, 9 and 24% respectively). Most (75%) of the respondents expected the construction work prices to remain unchanged, 19% – to increase.


According to the managers of the enterprises, the main factors limiting the construction activity were insufficient demand and unfavourable weather conditions (indicated by 24% each) and lack of employees (25%). 27% of the respondents stated that their activity was not limited by any factors.


Fig. 2. Construction confidence indicator and its components


The survey of retail trade** enterprise managers showed that in December 2018, against the same period of the previous year, business trends in retail trade slightly improved. In December 2018, more than two-thirds (67%) of respondents gave positive, 2% – negative assessment to their business situation (a year ago, 63 and 2% respectively).


However, in December, against November, the retail trade confidence indicator decreased by 4 percentage points. This was influenced by more pessimistic expectations for the retail trade business situation: 15% of the managers expected improvement, 5% – deterioration in the coming months (in November, 22 and 4% respectively). As regards acquisition of goods, expectations were also more pessimistic: 19% of the respondents stated that they will acquire more, 13% – fewer goods (in November, 30 and 8% respectively).


Most (82%) of the interviewed did not plan on changing the number of employees, 14% – intended to hire new employees. 85% of the respondents expected the prices of goods to remain unchanged, 9% – to increase.


According to the managers of the enterprises, the retail trade business activity was mostly limited by competition (indicated by 65%), insufficient demand (36%), gaps in legislation (25%), and lack of employees (17%). 15% of enterprises stated that their activity was not limited by any factors.


Fig. 3. Retail trade confidence indicator and its components


** Including trade in, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, their parts and accessories.


The results of an opinion survey of service sector enterprise managers showed that in December 2018, the confidence indicator stood at 29. Compared to November 2018, it decreased by 1 percentage point; compared to December 2017, it increased by 11 percentage points. Compared to other sectors, it remained the highest.


An increase in the number of managers stating that their business situation improved was recorded both over a month (from 33 to 37%) and over a year (from 25 to 37%). Service demand also increased: in December 2018, 44% of respondents indicated an increase, 9% – a decrease in demand (a month ago, 38 and 8% respectively; a year ago, 31 and 6% respectively).


However, the service demand expectations for the coming 3 months were more pessimistic: 33% of the respondents expected an increase, 12% – a decrease in demand (in November, 40 and 7% respectively). Almost two-thirds (64 %) of the respondents did not intend to change the number of the employees, 28% – planned on hiring new employees. An increase in prices of services in short run was expected by 12, a decrease – 3% of the interviewed.


According to the managers of enterprises, service sector business activity was limited by insufficient demand (31%) and lack of employees (15%). 43% of the interviewed stated that their business activity was not limited by any factors.


Fig. 4. Services confidence indicator and its components


 






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