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Thursday, 28.03.2024, 21:57
In January, the consumer confidence indicator stood at minus 8 in Lithuania
Changes in the consumer confidence indicator and its
components, balance
|
January |
December |
January 2017 |
May 2001–January 2018 average |
Largest since May 2001 |
Smallest since May 2001 |
Consumer confidence indicator |
–8 |
–8 |
–6 |
−14.8 |
9 |
−56 |
Changes in the household’s financial situation in
the coming 12 months |
4 |
2 |
1 |
−4.1 |
13 |
−38 |
Changes in the country’s economic situation in the
coming 12 months |
0 |
–3 |
2 |
−5.6 |
19 |
−57 |
Changes in the number of the unemployed in the
coming 12 months |
6 |
4 |
5 |
11.4 |
82 |
−33 |
Probability of making savings in the coming 12
months |
–29 |
−25 |
–23 |
−38.2 |
−16 |
−54 |
In January 2018, against December 2017, a decrease in the number of population having more pessimistic expectations for the country’s economic and households’ financial situation in the coming 12 months was observed: the percentage of those expecting deterioration in the country’s economic situation decreased from 29 to 23%, the percentage of those expecting deterioration in the household’s financial situation – from 17 to 14%.
However, expectations of the residents for the changes in unemployment figures in the coming 12 months were slightly more pessimistic than a month ago: although the percentage of population expecting a decrease in the number of the unemployed remained unchanged (23%), the percentage of those expecting an increase in the number of the unemployed grew from 31 to 34%.
Expectations of the residents regarding the possibility to make at least some savings in the coming 12 months was also slightly more pessimistic: the percentage of those expecting to make at least some savings decreased from 34 to 30%.
Consumer confidence indicator in urban rural areas
Consumer confidence indicators in urban and rural areas differed by 3 percentage points: in urban areas, it stood at minus 7, in rural areas – at minus 10. Against the previous month, the consumer confidence indicator in urban areas increased by 1 percentage point, in rural areas – decreased by 2 percentage points.
Compared to December, the decrease in the consumer confidence indicator in rural areas was determined by more pessimistic expectations of population regarding possibility to make savings: the percentage of those expecting to make at least some savings in the coming 12 months decreased from 34 to 26%.
In January, against the previous month, expectations of urban population for the country’s economic situation were more optimistic: the percentage of population expecting improvement in the country’s economic situation increased from 24 to 29%, the percentage of those expecting deterioration – decreased from 29 to 23%. However, expectations of urban population regarding the changes in the unemployment figures were slightly more pessimistic: the percentage of those expecting an increase in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months grew from 28 to 33%.
Consumer confidence indicator, against the same period of the previous year
Over the year (January 2018, against January 2017), the consumer confidence indicator decreased by 2 percentage points. Compared to the previous year, expectations of population regarding the possibility to make at least some savings in the coming 12 months, the country’s economic situation and changes in the unemployment figures were more pessimistic: the percentage of population expecting to make at least some savings decreased from 37 to 30%, the percentage of those expecting improvement in the country’s economic situation – from 31 to 27%, while the percentage of those expecting an increase in the number of the unemployed grew from 29 to 34%.
Expectations of the residents for the changes in their household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months were slightly more optimistic than a year ago: the percentage of those expecting improvement in their household’s financial situation increased from 20 to 23%.
Assessment of changes in the last 12 months and the current situation
In January 2018, assessment of residents regarding the changes in their household financial situation in the last 12 months was better than in December 2017: the percentage of those who indicated improvement in their household’s financial situation in the last 12 months increased by 3 percentage points (from 13 to 16%), deterioration – decreased by 6 percentage points (from 38 to 32%).
As regards the changes in the country’s economic situation in the last 12 months, assessment of the population was also better than a month ago: improvement was indicated by 21, deterioration – 40% of population (in December, 18 and 45% respectively).
As regards the current financial situation of their family, each third resident (33%) indicated making some savings, 9% – indicated living on savings or borrowings (in December, 35 and 10% respectively).
In January, 27% of population intended to increase expenditure on such purchases as furniture or household appliances in the coming 12 months, 18% – expected to spend less than in the last 12 months (in December, 28 and 17% respectively).
The annex to the news release contains information on changes in the consumer confidence indicator and its components (answers to questions used to compile the indicator). Respective information on other EU countries is available on the European Commission’s website.
The consumer opinion survey is conducted on the 1st–15th days of each month by interviewing 1 200 individuals randomly sampled from the Population Register of the Republic of Lithuania. The consumer confidence indicator refers to the simple arithmetic mean of the balances of positive and negative answers to four questions (about changes in the financial situation of the household, the economic situation in the country, the number of the unemployed (with an opposite sign), and the probability of making savings in the coming 12 months).
The survey is partially funded by the EU.
The February consumer opinion survey results will be released on 26 February 2018.
For more information, see the Database of Indicators.
Table 1.
Consumer confidence indicator, Balance
|
2017 |
2018 |
|||||||||||
I |
II |
III |
IV |
V |
VI |
VII |
VIII |
IX |
X |
XI |
XII |
I |
|
Total population |
−6 |
–10 |
–10 |
–11 |
–12 |
–12 |
–12 |
–9 |
–9 |
–11 |
–10 |
–8 |
–8 |
Female |
−10 |
–13 |
–14 |
–13 |
–15 |
–14 |
–15 |
–12 |
–13 |
–12 |
–13 |
–12 |
–10 |
Male |
−2 |
–7 |
–5 |
–9 |
–9 |
–9 |
–8 |
–7 |
–4 |
–9 |
–7 |
–2 |
–5 |
Urban population |
−6 |
–10 |
–9 |
–11 |
–11 |
–11 |
–11 |
–8 |
–9 |
–9 |
–9 |
–8 |
–7 |
Rural population |
−5 |
–11 |
–12 |
–12 |
–15 |
–13 |
–13 |
–12 |
–8 |
–13 |
–13 |
–8 |
–10 |
Table 2. Opinion of the population about changes in the household’s
financial situation in the coming 12 months
|
2017 |
2018 |
|||||||||||
I |
II |
III |
IV |
V |
VI |
VII |
VIII |
IX |
X |
XI |
XII |
I |
|
Household’s financial situation in the coming
12 months will: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
significantly improve |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
slightly improve |
20 |
18 |
20 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
21 |
24 |
23 |
remain unchanged |
57 |
57 |
55 |
57 |
55 |
55 |
60 |
60 |
59 |
55 |
51 |
52 |
56 |
slightly deteriorate |
14 |
17 |
15 |
17 |
16 |
19 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
12 |
significantly deteriorate |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
Balance |
1 |
0 |
0 |
−3 |
−1 |
−3 |
–2 |
–2 |
–1 |
–1 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
Table 3. Opinion of the population about
changes in the country’s economic situationin the coming 12 months
|
2017 |
2018 |
|||||||||||
I |
II |
III |
IV |
V |
VI |
VII |
VIII |
IX |
X |
XI |
XII |
I |
|
Country’s economic situation in the coming
12 months will: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
significantly improve |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
slightly improve |
30 |
23 |
24 |
22 |
20 |
22 |
20 |
24 |
25 |
24 |
23 |
25 |
27 |
remain unchanged |
42 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
47 |
44 |
47 |
47 |
47 |
44 |
42 |
42 |
46 |
slightly deteriorate |
20 |
24 |
23 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
25 |
25 |
20 |
significantly deteriorate |
3 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
Balance |
2 |
–5 |
–5 |
–5 |
–8 |
–6 |
–7 |
−4 |
−2 |
–5 |
–6 |
–3 |
0 |
Table 4. Opinion of the population about changes in the number of the
unemployed in the coming 12 months
|
2017 |
2018 |
|||||||||||
I |
II |
III |
IV |
V |
VI |
VII |
VIII |
IX |
X |
XI |
XII |
I |
|
Number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months
will: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
significantly increase |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
slightly increase |
26 |
31 |
34 |
26 |
30 |
29 |
31 |
28 |
28 |
29 |
26 |
28 |
30 |
remain unchanged |
44 |
41 |
38 |
43 |
42 |
41 |
41 |
44 |
45 |
42 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
slightly decrease |
21 |
20 |
20 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
18 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
24 |
22 |
21 |
significantly decrease |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Balance |
5 |
7 |
10 |
5 |
7 |
7 |
9 |
5 |
4 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
Table 5. Opinion of the population about the probability of making savings
in the coming 12 months
|
2017 |
2018 |
|||||||||||
I |
II |
III |
IV |
V |
VI |
VII |
VIII |
IX |
X |
XI |
XII |
I |
|
Probability of making savings in the coming
12 months: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
very likely |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
quite likely |
34 |
31 |
31 |
29 |
30 |
28 |
32 |
32 |
31 |
29 |
27 |
32 |
28 |
rather unlikely |
34 |
39 |
35 |
33 |
35 |
38 |
34 |
40 |
36 |
39 |
36 |
38 |
38 |
absolutely unlikely |
26 |
26 |
27 |
32 |
30 |
28 |
29 |
24 |
28 |
28 |
31 |
25 |
27 |
Balance |
−23 |
–28 |
–26 |
−32 |
−32 |
−31 |
–28 |
−27 |
–28 |
–30 |
–33 |
–25 |
–29 |