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In January, the consumer confidence indicator stood at minus 8 in Lithuania

Vida Stoškutė, Statistics Lithuania, 29.01.2018.Print version
Statistics Lithuania informs that in January 2018, the consumer confidence indicator stood at minus 8, and against December 2017, remained unchanged. More pessimistic expectations for the changes in unemployment figures and possibility to make at least some savings in the coming 12 months was counterbalanced by more optimistic expectations for the country’s economic situation and households’ financial situation.

Changes in the consumer confidence indicator and its components, balance

 

January
2018

December
2017

January 2017

May 2001–January 2018 average

Largest since May 2001 

Smallest since May 2001 

Consumer confidence indicator

–8

–8

–6

−14.8

9
(2007-03)

−56
(2009-01)

Changes in the household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months

4

2

1

−4.1

13
(2007-03)

−38
(2009-01)

Changes in the country’s economic situation in the coming 12 months

0

–3

2

−5.6

19
(2007-06)

−57
(2008-12)

Changes in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months

6

4

5

11.4

82
(2009-02)

−33
(2007-06)

Probability of making savings in the coming 12 months

–29

−25

–23

−38.2

−16
(2015-03)

−54
(2001-05)

 

In January 2018, against December 2017, a decrease in the number of population having more pessimistic expectations for the country’s economic and households’ financial situation in the coming 12 months was observed: the percentage of those expecting deterioration in the country’s economic situation decreased from 29 to 23%, the percentage of those expecting deterioration in the household’s financial situation – from 17 to 14%.




However, expectations of the residents for the changes in unemployment figures in the coming 12 months were slightly more pessimistic than a month ago: although the percentage of population expecting a decrease in the number of the unemployed remained unchanged (23%), the percentage of those expecting an increase in the number of the unemployed grew from 31 to 34%.


Expectations of the residents regarding the possibility to make at least some savings in the coming 12 months was also slightly more pessimistic: the percentage of those expecting to make at least some savings decreased from 34 to 30%.


Consumer confidence indicator in urban rural areas

Consumer confidence indicators in urban and rural areas differed by 3 percentage points: in urban areas, it stood at minus 7, in rural areas – at minus 10. Against the previous month, the consumer confidence indicator in urban areas increased by 1 percentage point, in rural areas – decreased by 2 percentage points.


Compared to December, the decrease in the consumer confidence indicator in rural areas was determined by more pessimistic expectations of population regarding possibility to make savings: the percentage of those expecting to make at least some savings in the coming 12 months decreased from 34 to 26%.


In January, against the previous month, expectations of urban population for the country’s economic situation were more optimistic: the percentage of population expecting improvement in the country’s economic situation increased from 24 to 29%, the percentage of those expecting deterioration – decreased from 29 to 23%. However, expectations of urban population regarding the changes in the unemployment figures were slightly more pessimistic: the percentage of those expecting an increase in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months grew from 28 to 33%.


Consumer confidence indicator, against the same period of the previous year

Over the year (January 2018, against January 2017), the consumer confidence indicator decreased by 2 percentage points. Compared to the previous year, expectations of population regarding the possibility to make at least some savings in the coming 12 months, the country’s economic situation and changes in the unemployment figures were more pessimistic: the percentage of population expecting to make at least some savings decreased from 37 to 30%, the percentage of those expecting improvement in the country’s economic situation – from 31 to 27%, while the percentage of those expecting an increase in the number of the unemployed grew from 29 to 34%.


Expectations of the residents for the changes in their household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months were slightly more optimistic than a year ago: the percentage of those expecting improvement in their household’s financial situation increased from 20 to 23%.


Assessment of changes in the last 12 months and the current situation


In January 2018, assessment of residents regarding the changes in their household financial situation in the last 12 months was better than in December 2017: the percentage of those who indicated improvement in their household’s financial situation in the last 12 months increased by 3 percentage points (from 13 to 16%), deterioration – decreased by 6 percentage points (from 38 to 32%).


As regards the changes in the country’s economic situation in the last 12 months, assessment of the population was also better than a month ago: improvement was indicated by 21, deterioration – 40% of population (in December, 18 and 45% respectively).


As regards the current financial situation of their family, each third resident (33%) indicated making some savings, 9% – indicated living on savings or borrowings (in December, 35 and 10% respectively).


In January, 27% of population intended to increase expenditure on such purchases as furniture or household appliances in the coming 12 months, 18% – expected to spend less than in the last 12 months (in December, 28 and 17% respectively).


The annex to the news release contains information on changes in the consumer confidence indicator and its components (answers to questions used to compile the indicator). Respective information on other EU countries is available on the European Commission’s website.


The consumer opinion survey is conducted on the 1st–15th days of each month by interviewing 1 200 individuals randomly sampled from the Population Register of the Republic of Lithuania. The consumer confidence indicator refers to the simple arithmetic mean of the balances of positive and negative answers to four questions (about changes in the financial situation of the household, the economic situation in the country, the number of the unemployed (with an opposite sign), and the probability of making savings in the coming 12 months).


The survey is partially funded by the EU.


The February consumer opinion survey results will be released on 26 February 2018.


For more information, see the Database of Indicators.

 

Table 1. Consumer confidence indicator, Balance

 

2017

2018

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

I

Total population

−6

–10

–10

–11

–12

–12

–12

–9

–9

–11

–10

–8

–8

Female

−10

–13

–14

–13

–15

–14

–15

–12

–13

–12

–13

–12

–10

Male

−2

–7

–5

–9

–9

–9

–8

–7

–4

–9

–7

–2

–5

Urban population

−6

–10

–9

–11

–11

–11

–11

–8

–9

–9

–9

–8

–7

Rural population

−5

–11

–12

–12

–15

–13

–13

–12

–8

–13

–13

–8

–10


Table 2. Opinion of the population about changes in the household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months

 

2017

2018

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

I

Household’s financial situation in the coming 12 months will:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

significantly improve

0

1

1

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

1

0

0

slightly improve

20

18

20

17

18

18

16

17

18

19

21

24

23

remain unchanged

57

57

55

57

55

55

60

60

59

55

51

52

56

slightly deteriorate

14

17

15

17

16

19

15

16

16

16

16

15

12

significantly deteriorate

2

2

3

3

3

3

3

2

3

2

3

2

2

Balance

1

0

0

−3

−1

−3

–2

–2

–1

–1

0

2

4


Table 3. Opinion of the population about changes in the country’s economic situationin the coming 12 months

 

2017

2018

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

I

Country’s economic situation in the coming 12 months will:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

significantly improve

1

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

slightly improve

30

23

24

22

20

22

20

24

25

24

23

25

27

remain unchanged

42

45

45

45

47

44

47

47

47

44

42

42

46

slightly deteriorate

20

24

23

24

24

24

23

22

22

23

25

25

20

significantly deteriorate

3

5

6

5

6

5

6

5

4

6

6

4

3

Balance

2

–5

–5

–5

–8

–6

–7

−4

−2

–5

–6

–3

0


Table 4. Opinion of the population about changes in the number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months

 

2017

2018

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

I

Number of the unemployed in the coming 12 months will:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

significantly increase

3

3

4

4

4

4

4

3

2

3

3

3

4

slightly increase

26

31

34

26

30

29

31

28

28

29

26

28

30

remain unchanged

44

41

38

43

42

41

41

44

45

42

40

42

41

slightly decrease

21

20

20

22

20

21

18

20

20

19

24

22

21

significantly decrease

1

1

1

1

2

1

1

1

2

2

1

1

2

Balance

5

7

10

5

7

7

9

5

4

7

3

4

6


Table 5. Opinion of the population about the probability of making savings in the coming 12 months

 

2017

2018

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

I

Probability of making savings in the coming 12 months:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

very likely

3

2

3

2

1

2

2

1

2

2

2

2

2

quite likely

34

31

31

29

30

28

32

32

31

29

27

32

28

rather unlikely

34

39

35

33

35

38

34

40

36

39

36

38

38

absolutely unlikely

26

26

27

32

30

28

29

24

28

28

31

25

27

Balance

−23

–28

–26

−32

−32

−31

–28

−27

–28

–30

–33

–25

–29






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