Analytics, Economics, Lithuania, Statistics
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Friday, 26.04.2024, 01:51
Economic sentiment indicator in Lithuania decreased in January 2017
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Against January 2016, the economic sentiment indicator grew
by 3 ppt: the industrial and services confidence indicators increased by 6 and
2 ppt respectively. The trade confidence indicator decreased by 6 ppt. The consumer
confidence indicator remained unchanged.
Economic sentiment indicator and its components
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |||||||||||
XII | XII | I | II | III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | I | |
Economic sentiment indicator | –9 | –5 | –5 | –1 | –1 | –2 | –2 | –4 | –1 | –1 | –3 | –1 | –3 | –2 |
Industrial confidence indicator | –16 | –11 | –7 | –4 | –7 | –7 | –9 | –9 | –4 | –4 | –8 | –7 | –7 | –5 |
Construction confidence indicator | –43 | –36 | –31 | –21 | –21 | –18 | –17 | –27 | –21 | –24 | –31 | –33 | –37 | –34 |
Retail trade confidence indicator | 10 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
Services confidence indicator | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 8 |
Consumer confidence indicator | –7 | –6 | –9 | –7 | –8 | –12 | –7 | –9 | –10 | –10 | –8 | –4 | –5 | –6 |
The results of the opinion survey of industrial enterprise
managers showed that in January 2017, against December 2016, changes in
business tendencies in industry improved. This was influenced by more
optimistic expectations for production. An increase in production in the coming
3 months was expected by 24, a decrease – 12% of the respondents (a month ago,
22 and 17% respectively). Expectations for exports also improved: an increase
in exports was expected by 20, a decrease – 11% of enterprise managers (a month
ago, 17 and 15% respectively). Most (86 %) enterprise managers did not plan on
changing the number of employees, while 10% – planned on increasing it.
However, in January 2017, deterioration was observed for
both production and production demand: 23% of respondents indicated a decrease
in production in the last 3 months, 20% – an increase (a month ago, 18 and 28%
respectively). A decrease in production demand was indicated by 17, an increase
– 28% of enterprise managers (a month ago, 15 and 31% respectively).
Fig. 1. Industrial confidence indicator and its components
On January 2017, compared to the same period of the previous
year, business tendencies in construction sector improved.19%
of enterprise managers stated that the volume of construction works in the last
3 months increased, 25% – that it decreased (a year ago, 11 and 44%
respectively). 53% of enterprise managers stated that the order books (demand)
was sufficient, 47% – gave bad assessment to their order books (a year ago, 52
and 48% respectively).
As in January 2016, the number of employees will decrease in
the coming 3 months due to seasonality: a decrease in the number of employees
was expected by 26%, an increase – 5% of enterprise managers (a year ago, 29
and 6% respectively). An increase in construction orders in the coming months
was expected by 10, a decrease – 23% of enterprise managers (a year ago, 7 and
20%). Most (76%) respondents expected prices for construction work to remain
unchanged, while 15% – expected them to increase.
Fig. 2. Construction confidence indicator and its components
The survey of retail trade* enterprise
managers showed that in January 2017, against December 2016, business
tendencies slightly deteriorated. This was influenced by less optimistic
business expectations for the coming months: deterioration was expected by 14,
improvement – 13% (a month ago, 16 and 17% respectively). Moreover, in January,
fewer enterprises planned on purchasing more goods for resale: 10% of the
interviewed planned on purchasing more goods for resale, 43% – less goods for
resale (in December, 14 and 38% respectively).
However, over the previous months, improvement in trade
business situation was observed: improvement was indicated by 20, deterioration
– 11% of enterprise managers (a month ago, 18 and 12% respectively).
Most (72%) enterprise managers did not plan on changing the
number of employees, 18% – planned on increasing it. 9% of enterprise managers
planned on increasing the prices of goods sold, yet most (89%) enterprise
managers did not plan on changing the prices.
Fig. 3. Retail trade confidence indicator and its components
The survey of service sector enterprise
managers showed that in January, the services confidence indicator decreased by
1ppt. This was influenced by more pessimistic expectations for service demand
in the coming 3 months: a decrease in demand was expected by 23, an increase –
16% of enterprise managers (a month ago, 10 and 17% respectively). The largest
decrease in demand is expected in enterprises engaged in transportation and
storage, food and beverage service activities.
However, in January 2017, against December 2016, an increase
in service demand was observed: an increase in demand was indicated by 26, a
decrease – 8% of enterprise managers (a month ago, 19 and 9%). The business
situation of service enterprises slightly improved: in January, improvement was
indicated by 19, deterioration – 5% of enterprise managers (a month ago, 15 and
5%).
Nearly three quarters (73%) of the respondents did not plan
on changing the number of employees, while 17% – planned on hiring new
employees. An increase in prices for services in the short run was expected by
8, a decrease – 4% of the interviewed, while 88% of the enterprise managers did
not plan on changing the prices.
Fig. 4. Services confidence indicator and its components
Concepts
Balance is an indicator calculated as the
difference between positive and negative answers to the questions posed in the
questionnaire.
Economic sentiment indicator refers to the
weighted arithmetic mean of five components – consumer, industrial,
construction, retail trade, and services confidence indicators (their weights
making up 20, 40, 5, 5, and 30 per cent respectively).
Services confidence indicator is calculated as a
simple arithmetic mean of the balances of the assessment of changes the
business situation, the demand for services provided and expected demand.
Industrial confidence indicator is calculated as
a simple arithmetic mean of the balances of the assessment of demand,
production expectations and the level of stocks (the last with inverted sign).
Retail trade confidence indicator is calculated
as a simple arithmetic mean of the balances of changes in the business
situation, expectations for the business situation and assessment of the level
of stocks (the last with inverted sign).
Construction confidence indicator is calculated
as a simple arithmetic mean of the balances of the assessment of demand for
construction works and the employment expectations.
Consumer confidence indicator refers to the
simple arithmetic mean of the balances of positive and negative answers to four
questions (about changes in the financial situation of the household, the
economic situation in the country, the number of the unemployed (with an
opposite sign), and the probability of making savings in the coming 12 months).
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