Alcohol, Analytics, Estonia, Lithuania, Markets and Companies, Retail
International Internet Magazine. Baltic States news & analytics
Friday, 29.03.2024, 13:06
18% of alcohol consumed in South Estonia comes from Latvia
It appears from the survey that Estonians would no longer
head to Latvia to buy alcohol if the difference in prices was smaller by 10 percentage
points (ppt) than it is now.
"On the basis of data garnered in surveys mathematical
models can be set out that help to assess how different factors will influence
the behavior of people – we applied a model like this also in this survey on
cross-border alcohol purchases to identify a link between price differences and
buying alcohol in Latvia," Emor
expert Aivar Voog said.
In order for the share of Latvia to become marginal and
amount to 1% in all of Estonia and to less than 10% in South Estonia, the price
difference between Estonia and Latvia should narrow by 10 ppt.
"This would be possible if the alcohol price level rose
significantly in Latvia as a result of higher excise duties. At present the
price difference between Estonia and Latvia is more than 20%," Emor expert Julia Aru said.
According to Emor,
the 15% rise in the alcohol excise duty in Estonia next year may increase the
price difference with Latvia by a further 5 ppt or so. As a result, the amounts
bought in Latvia will grow by 1.5 ppt across Estonia, including by just 1 ppt in
Tallinn, northern and western Estonia and Viru county. In the Tartu region the
share of booze bought in Latvia would grow from 7.5% to 11% and in South
Estonia from 18% to 26%.
Emor interviewed
1,577 Estonian residents of ages 15-74 year for the survey.